Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 22nd through May 29th

Current risk: Currently, we do not have a tornado risk.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comment:  At this time, I do not have tornadoes in the forecast.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is possible late Friday night into at least Monday night.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  NOT AT THIS TIME.  It is spring.  I will monitor the weekend into next week.  For now, the chances of severe appear limited.

I will monitor the Missouri Bootheel on Saturday.  The SPC has a low risk of severe weather.  For now, this threat appears limited.  I will keep it out of the forecast until I see additional data.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED RISK.   On and off periods of rain into next week.  With repeated rounds of thunderstorms, I can’t rule out some spotty water issues.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.    

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

•   Cooler weather into the weekend.  Some nights will dip into the 40s.
•   Dry weather (once the far southern showers exit) today and tomorrow.  Great days to be outside.
•   We will have shower and thunderstorm chances Friday night into Tuesday.
•   I would not cancel weekend plans, but monitor updated forecasts/radars.  Then, have a plan B in case it rains.

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WOW, yesterday was amazing. We earned that weather.

We did have some thunderstorms late last night across southern Missouri into western Tennessee.  Some lightning and pea-sized hail, but nothing severe.

That activity will push off to the southeast today.

That will leave us with a nice day for the region.

No weather concerns tonight or tomorrow.  It will be cool tonight.  A nice night to open the windows, if you like cool air.

A series of weather systems will move into the region Friday night through Tuesday.  This will bring on and off shower and thunderstorm chances.

It won’t rain all the time.  I would not cancel weekend plans, but have a solid plan B.  There will be times when it will be wet.  If you have a plan B, then you will be prepared.  Then, go about your activities.  If it rains, you will be prepared.

At this time, we do not expect severe weather on Saturday, Sunday, or Monday.

The SPC has a low risk of a few intense storms across far southern Missouri into the Bootheel and parts of western Tennessee on Saturday.  For now, I kept that out of the forecast.  I will reevaluate it again tomorrow.

Rain totals Friday night through Saturday morning.  Notice how they are skewed towards the southwest.

Some locally heavy downpours, as well.

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Then, rain totals between Friday night and Tuesday morning.  Some decent totals.

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Let’s break it down a bit more.  Here are the 12-hour rain probabilities.

7 PM Friday night through 7 AM Saturday.

7 AM Saturday to 7 PM Saturday

7 PM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday

7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Sunday

7 PM Sunday to 7 AM Monday

7 AM Monday to 7 PM Monday

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As you can see, there will be periods with greater rain probabilities.  Plan accordingly.

Again, it will be cool into Monday.  Temperatures, at times, will be 10 to 20 degrees below seasonal norms.

I hope you have a nice holiday weekend!  Rain or shine.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model.

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Here is the NAM 3K model

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Here is the NAM model

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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