Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 15th through May 21st

Current risk:  Tornadoes are possible.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment: 

Thursday (this afternoon and tonight)

There is a conditional risk of a tornado or two today and tonight.  Conditional means there is a strong CAP (warm layer of air aloft) in the atmosphere.  Storms may not be able to form. 

If storms do form, then they would become severe with damaging wind gusts, very large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two.

Friday into Friday night

Severe thunderstorms are likely on Friday and Friday night.  Some storms could produce baseball size hail, 80 mph wind gusts, and tornadoes.  Stay weather aware.  Numerous warnings are likely on Friday and Friday night.

Sunday through Wednesday

A couple of storm systems will move through the region Sunday through Wednesday.  There will likely be additional severe weather risks.  Right now, I am mainly monitoring Tuesday and Wednesday.

Monitor your app notifications.

Don’t forget that I have partnered with a company that will call you in case of a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  I use it myself.  This does not replace WeatherTalk, but it is an added layer of protection.

Here is more information on the service

www.tornadocall.com

YouTube Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ve2UY2mAkEI

What the tornado warning sounds like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXBc03tW_N0

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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We do have quite a bit of weather to track.  Let’s break it down!

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TODAY

It will be quite warm today.  Some locations will hit the 90-degree mark.  Heat index values will be even higher.

Today’s highs.  Some of you might consider this hot weather.  I usually reserve the word “hot” for ninety and above.

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Dew points (a measure of moisture in the air) will become muggier today.  Perhaps in the 70s!  That is air you wear.  Humid!

Those dew points will linger into early next week.  They will go up and down depending on the placement of the cold/warm front.  Those north of the front won’t be as muggy.  Those south of the front will be muggier.

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Dew points are a measure of moisture.  Those high dew points will help build an unstable atmosphere, as well.  Thunderstorms in these dew points will produce heavy downpours, as well (plenty of moisture to tap into).

Remember, moisture is energy for thunderstorms.

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TODAY’S THUNDERSTORM CHANCES

A cold front will push towards the region today and tomorrow.

We are outlooked, by the Storm Prediction Center,  for a severe weather threat this afternoon and tonight.

Confidence in severe weather remains low.  That is because of a strong CAP.

Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s latest severe weather outlook for Thursday.  This is a level one and two severe weather risk.  Dark green is the level one risk.  Yellow is the level two risk.

What is a cap?  A warm layer of air aloft that prevents thunderstorms from forming.

Here is the Thursday CAP.  Some data weakens the CAP this afternoon and evening.

If the CAP breaks, then severe storms will quickly develop.  The red and purple colors are a strong CAP.

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Here are the CAPE levels on Thursday.  These are high numbers.  Plenty of unstable air, but questions remain on whether storms will form during the day.  A strong cap could help prevent storms.

CAPE is energy that thunderstorms tap into.

Again, if storms form in this environment, they would likely be severe.

The primary concern would be 70 mph wind gusts, golf ball to baseball-sized hail, and a tornado or two.

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Let me show you a few high-resolution models.  This is for today/tonight.

Storms will be moving east northeast.

This is the NAM 3K model.  It does pop a few storms this afternoon.  This is around 5 PM.

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NSSL model.

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And this is the RRFS model.  This is around 4 PM.

As you can see, there are differences in the model guidance.  And, there are some models that show no storms forming.

Thus, confidence remains low.  Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app notifications today and tonight.

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TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING

The chance of showers and thunderstorms could be a bit higher tonight from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.  Data shows showers and thunderstorms forming as we move deeper into tonight.   By then, some of the stronger severe weather parameters will have diminished.   But it will still be unstable enough to support some severe thunderstorms.

Let’s remain weather aware tonight into early Friday morning.  The primary concern late tonight would be 60 mph wind gusts and golf ball-sized hail.

You can see those storms on this graphic.  This is nine different models.  Notice how several of them pop thunderstorms over our southern counties late tonight and early tomorrow morning.  If storms do form, they could produce large hail and high wind gusts.  Perhaps the primary risk will be large hail.

Double click on this image to enlarge it.

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FRIDAY’S THUNDERSTORM CHANCES

Thunderstorm chances will increase on Friday.  Some thunderstorms will be severe, mainly during the afternoon and overnight hours.  We could have multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms.

The atmosphere will be primed for severe weather.  The concern will be baseball-sized hail, 80 mph wind gusts, and tornadoes.  Some tornadoes could be strong.

There could be a few storms Friday morning over mainly the Bootheel into Kentucky/Tennessee.  Those could produce hail and high wind gusts.

Then, another round or two during the afternoon into the overnight hours.

The CAP on Friday won’t be as strong.   Lift will be stronger on Friday, as well.  All of the ingredients are coming together for a significant severe weather threat.

We are at a level three (enhanced) risk of severe weather on Friday.  We could go to level four or five.  We will see what the Storm Prediction Center decides to do in future updates.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather