Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 14th through May 20tth

Current risk:  Tornadoes are possible.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comment:  We do have a risk of severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and night.  Another risk is on Friday afternoon and night.  I am monitoring Sunday through Tuesday.

There remain questions about the threat level on Thursday and Friday.  There will be a very strong CAP (lid on the atmosphere) on Thursday.  A weaker CAP on Friday.  If the CAP holds on Thursday, then severe storms won’t form.

At this time, we believe storms are more likely to form on Friday than on Thursday.  With that said, I will need to monitor both days closely.  If supercells do form, then they would likely produce severe weather.  I can’t rule out a few tornadoes.

A couple of storm systems will move through the region Sunday through Tuesday.  I will monitor the risk of additional severe weather.

Monitor your app notifications.

Don’t forget that I have partnered with a company that will call you in case of a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  I use it myself.  This does not replace WeatherTalk, but it is an added layer of protection.

Here is more information on the service

www.tornadocall.com

YouTube Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ve2UY2mAkEI

What the tornado warning sounds like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXBc03tW_N0

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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We do have quite a bit of weather to track.  Let’s break it down!

TODAY

It will be warmer today with widespread eighties for high temperatures.  A small chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  Most of the region will remain dry today.  One or two spots could pick up a brief shower/storm.

THURSDAY

It will be even warmer on Thursday.  Some locations will hit the 90-degree mark.  Heat index values will be even higher.

Thursday’s highs.  Some of you might consider this hot weather.  I usually reserve the word “hot” for ninety and above.

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Dew points (a measure of moisture in the air) will become muggier today and tomorrow.  Perhaps in the 70s on Thursday!  That is air you wear.  Humid!

Those dew points will linger into early next week.  They will go up and down depending on the placement of the cold/warm front.  Those north of the front won’t be as muggy.  Those south of the front will be muggier.

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Dew points are a measure of moisture.  Those high dew points will help build an unstable atmosphere, as well.  Thunderstorms in these dew points will produce heavy downpours, as well (plenty of moisture to tap into).

Moisture is energy for thunderstorms.

Here are the dew point graphics.

Wednesday (mostly mid to upper 60s).  Double-click the dew point maps to enlarge them.

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Thursday afternoon (the purple color represents 70 degrees and above dew points).

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THURSDAY’S THUNDERSTORM CHANCES

A cold front will push towards the region on Thursday and Friday.

We are still outlooked, by the Storm Prediction Center,  for a severe weather threat on Thursday afternoon and night.

Confidence in severe weather on Thursday remains low.  That is because of a strong CAP.

Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s latest severe weather outlook for Thursday.  This is a level one and two severe weather risk.  Dark green is the level one risk.  Yellow is the level two risk.  This will continue to evolve.

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Again, as mentioned above, the atmosphere will be capped on Thursday.  This raises questions about the threat level.

What is a cap?  A warm layer of air aloft that prevents thunderstorms from forming.

Here is the Thursday CAP.  Very strong.

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Here are the CAPE levels on Thursday.  These are high numbers.  Plenty of unstable air, but questions remain on whether storms will form during the day.  A strong cap could help prevent storms.

CAPE is basically energy that thunderstorms tap into.

Again, if storms form in this environment, they would be likely be severe.

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I currently have 20% thunderstorm chances on Thursday.  I have 30% thunderstorm chances on Thursday night.  If storms form, they would likely be severe.  There will be no shortage of instability and wind shear.

Let me show you a few high-resolution models.

This is the HWF FV3 model.  It does pop a few storms on Thursday afternoon.

The WRF NSSL model.  It also does pop a few storms.

NSSL MPAS model.

Other models remain dry.  There is no model agreement on whether storms form on Thursday afternoon.   This isn’t surprising with such a strong CAP.

The chance of showers and thunderstorms could be a bit higher Thursday night from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.  Most data shows some showers and thunderstorms forming as we move deeper into the night.   By then, some of the stronger severe weather parameters will have diminished.  So, perhaps that activity would remain below severe levels.  I will monitor it.

This model shows those showers and storms.  Notice the heavier activity to our north.

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FRIDAY’S THUNDERSTORM CHANCES

Thunderstorm chances will increase on Friday.  Some thunderstorms could also be severe, mainly during the afternoon and overnight hours.  A couple of rounds of storms will be possible.

There could be a few storms Friday morning over mainly the Bootheel into Kentucky/Tennessee.

Then, another round or two during the afternoon into the overnight hours.

The CAP on Friday won’t be as strong.   Lift will be stronger on Friday, as well.

We are at a level two (slight) risk of severe weather on Friday.

I can’t rule out our region being upgraded to a level three severe weather risk.

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Friday’s CAPE numbers.  Plenty of energy for thunderstorms to tap into.

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Let’s look at Friday.  Confidence is higher that storms will form on Friday and Friday night.

This is just one model.  It won’t be exact, but you can take the general idea from it.   Storms are likely by Friday afternoon and night.

This model shows severe thunderstorms around 3 PM on Friday across portions of Missouri and Illinois.

These storms would be moving towards the east.

This next graphic is for late Friday afternoon and evening.   This particular model shows severe thunderstorms in our area.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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