Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Radars and Lightning Data

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Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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Good morning, everyone.

We are waking up to mild temperatures area-wide.  Some patchy fog, as well.  A few showers and storms.

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Radar showed a few showers and thunderstorms across mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (esp north).

6:20 AM radar (see the live radar links at the bottom of the page)

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The weather will be unsettled today.  We already have a few showers and thunderstorms on radar.  I expect quite a few more to develop by late morning and afternoon.

An upper-level disturbance will be pushing across the region.  This will cause lift.  That equals showers and thunderstorms.

There will be some CAPE to work with.  CAPE is energy that thunderstorms tap into.

You can see that here.  Those orange colors are decent CAPE numbers.  Wind shear will be low today.  Wind shear is another ingredient for severe thunderstorms.

Thus, a marginal risk of a few storms producing high winds and hail.

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As mentioned above, the Storm Prediction Center has a low-level one risk across portions of the region (the dark green zone).

This is not a significant severe weather outbreak/event.  It is a low-end risk that a couple of storms will produce strong winds/downburst winds and quarter-sized hail.  Lightning, of course.

Here is the severe weather outlook for today.  The time frame of most concern is primarily 12 pm to 7 pm.

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Friday and Saturday should deliver nicer weather.  Rain chances have diminished.  That is good news.  It will be mild, as well.

I also lowered Sunday’s rain probabilities.  More good news.

Let’s hope we finally have a nice weekend!  It has been a while.

Yet another system will push into the region by Sunday night and Monday of next week.  This will bring additional showers and thunderstorms.

Peak thunderstorm chances will likely be on Monday and Monday night.

A  bit early to know if severe weather will be a concern.  For now, if severe weather becomes a concern, it appears it would be a low-level risk on Monday.

I continue to watch the 14th through 20th time frame.  Data has been showing higher instability levels during that time frame.

Typically, May is our peak tornado season.  So severe weather would not be a surprise.  I will be monitoring trends.

You can see that instability on the GFS model.

This is CAPE.  CAPE is energy for thunderstorms to tap into.

Here are the latest graphics from that particular model.

May 14th and 15th.  Unstable air over our region.

May 16th.  Quite unstable.

May 18th instability.  A cold front is shown on the GFS model with severe thunderstorms.

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This could be a multi-day period that we will need to monitor.  It is still beyond day seven.  Thus, confidence in exact details is low.

Monitor updated forecasts as we move deeper into next week.

It will also become very warm.  Towards the middle/end of next week I am forecasting widespread 80s with heat index values reaching above 90 degrees!

Muggy, as well.

Dew points may pop above 70 degrees.  That is muggy air.  Humid.

Here is the Thursday afternoon dew point forecast (next week).  Muggy.

Double-click to enlarge.

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More muggy air next Friday afternoon, as well.  This would be unstable air.  Thunderstorms could be an issue.

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If the GFS is right, then heat index values could pop into the 90s late next week.

Here is what it shows for next Friday afternoon (heat index values – what the air feels like).

Lots to monitor.  I will stay on top of it.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM model.

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Here is the Hrrr model.

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