.
I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page. Link to those threads CLICK HERE
Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
.
🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
April 30th through May 6th
Current risk: The risk of a tornado remains low.
Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.
Comment: The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a low-end risk of severe weather today through tomorrow.
The primary concern will be damaging winds and nickel-sized hail. The tornado risk is low. The tornado risk is rarely zero when we have severe thunderstorms. Overall, however, the risk is low.
Here is today’s severe weather risk.
Dark green is the level one out of five risk. Level one is the lowest risk. Light green is where storms are possible, but below severe levels.
.
Here is Thursday’s severe weather outlook
Yellow (slight) is a level two severe weather risk. Dark green (marginal) is a level one out of five for a severe weather risk. Light green indicates that storms are possible, but they are expected to remain below severe levels.
.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. We will have a chance of lightning from today through Friday afternoon. I did add Friday to the forecast. It now looks like a few storms will linger.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. A few thunderstorms could become severe today and tonight—another risk on Thursday and Thursday night. The primary concern will be isolated damaging winds and a few reports of nickel-sized hail.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Locally heavy rain is possible today through Thursday evening. Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated. A few spots could have brief water issues if thunderstorms train over the same areas.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.
.
A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
.
.
Forecast discussion.
- Mild today and tomorrow.
- A chance of showers and thunderstorms today through Friday evening. A few of the thunderstorms could be intense with strong wind gusts and hail. A low-level severe weather risk today through Thursday evening.
- A few showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday. I did bump chances up just a bit.
- Dry and cool Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Highs in the 60s and 70s.
- Calm and warmer early next week.
.
.
Good morning, everyone
We are waking up to quite a few clouds. Mild temperatures. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, as well.
Radar at 6 am showed scattered showers and thunderstorms across the western half of the region. See the live radar links at the bottom of the blog.
This is what radar looked like at 6:00 AM. This precipitation was moving east-northeast at 35 mph.
It is weakening as it moves northeast.
.
The atmosphere will remain unstable today and tomorrow. That equals more showers and locally intense thunderstorms.
We had numerous severe thunderstorm warnings yesterday in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. But, there were only a handful of damaging wind reports. There were no large hail reports.
Most of the wind damage reports were downed tree limbs.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. The primary concern will be damaging winds and nickel-sized hail. The tornado risk is low, but never zero. Any time we have severe thunderstorms, there’s a chance of a brief tornado.
Overall, the risk of tornadoes is very low.
The primary time frame of concern (for severe weather) will be this afternoon and evening.
This morning’s storms could produce a few reports of strong wind gusts. Locally heavy rain, as well. Overall, the activity moving through Missouri is expected to weaken as it moves farther northeast.
On Thursday, the cold front will push into our region. This will bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. A few of the thunderstorms could trigger severe thunderstorm warnings for damaging winds. Nickel-sized hail, as well. Again, the tornado risk will remain low.
The cold front will push through the region late Thursday night and Friday.
The system has slowed just a tad. I did increase precipitation chances on Friday. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will come to an end by Friday night.
An upper-level low will be diving into the region on Friday. Thus, some additional showers are anticipated. Isolated lightning.
Saturday through Wednesday will be dry. Cool mornings. Mild afternoons. No significant weather concerns.
A warming trend is expected as we push into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
Let me show you the rain probabilities for the next few days, through Friday night. This shows you the % chance of showers and thunderstorms. As you can see, it moves around a bit.
Double-click each image to enlarge it.
Today’s rain probabilities
Tonight’s rain probabilities
Thursday’s rain probabilities
Thursday night’s rain probabilities
Friday’s rain probabilities
Friday night’s rain probabilities
.
Let’s look at some future-cast radars.
.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr model. This shows you the shower and thunderstorm activity today into tomorrow.
As you can see, periods of showers and thunderstorms.
.
Here is the NAM model.
.
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
.
.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
.
We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!
⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
.
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
