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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
April 28th through May 4th
Current risk: UNLIKELY.
Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.
Comment: There is a low risk of severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. At this time, the threat of tornadoes appears unlikely. A few of the storms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail.
A few of the thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday could be intense. The tornado risk will remain very low. Unlikely.
Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s Tuesday severe weather outlook. We have been placed in a low-level risk.
Yellow is a slight risk (level 2) zone. Dark green is a marginal risk (level 1) zone. Overall, this setup is not particularly impressive for developing severe thunderstorms.
Next week looks uneventful, for the time being.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. We will have a chance of lightning from Tuesday through Friday. Peak chances will be Tuesday and Tuesday night, Wednesday night, Thursday, and Thursday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? LOW RISK. A few thunderstorms could become severe on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Overall, the risk of severe weather is low.
I will monitor Wednesday and Thursday.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Locally heavy rain is possible Tuesday into Thursday. Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated. A few spots could have brief water issues if thunderstorms train over the same areas.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Forecast discussion.
- Quite warm today and tomorrow with widespread 80s.
- Gusty southerly winds today and tomorrow at 15 to 25 mph.
- A chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. A few of the thunderstorms could be intense with strong wind gusts and hail. A low-level severe weather risk on Tuesday afternoon and night.
- A few showers may continue into Friday.
- Dry and cool Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Highs in the 60s and 70s.
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Good day, everyone.
I hope you had a wonderful weekend.
Today will be quite warm, with highs in the middle to upper 80s. We will also have gusty southerly winds at 10 to 25 mph.
Today will be dry across the region.
Tonight should remain dry through most of the night. As we move into the morning hours, I will be monitoring a storm system to our west. That will bring our next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
On Tuesday, a front will push into the region from the west. This will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into Tuesday night.
A few of the thunderstorms could produce strong and gusty winds and quarter-sized hail. The tornado risk is low.
The front will stall in our region Wednesday into Thursday night. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely.
The front may push northward on Wednesday. That would mean higher rain chances north vs south.
Then, it moves back south on Wednesday night and Thursday. That would increase precipitation chances area-wide.
There will be a small risk of severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday. Once again, the primary concern will be strong wind gusts and hail. The tornado risk will remain very low.
Locally heavy rain is possible with any showers and thunderstorms that develop this week. This could cause some brief flooding issues. Mainly ditches overflowing and problems with commonly flooded roadways. Overall, the risk of flash flooding is low.
It will remain warm/mild on Wednesday and Thursday.
A few showers and storms may linger into Friday. By Friday, however, the bulk of the system will have pulled away from our region. Leaving us with somewhat cooler temperatures.
In fact, lows may dip into the 40s by Friday and Saturday night. Highs this coming weekend will mostly be in the 60s and 70s. Nothing too extreme, but cooler than the first half of the week.
Let’s take a look at rainfall totals. Totals will vary based on thunderstorms. Thunderstorms can always enhance rainfall totals.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr model. This shows you the shower and thunderstorm activity on Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
As you can see, periods of showers and thunderstorms.
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Here is the GFS model.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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