Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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2:30 PM Video Update

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2:25 PM

We are waiting on a tornado watch to be issued.

Charge your devices.

Storms will be moving at speeds of 50 to 80 mph.  Very fast.  That does not allow much time to seek shelter.

Be prepared.

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10 AM NWS Update

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9 AM NWS Paducah, KY Video Briefing

Beau’s Video Update

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Stay updated on the latest watches and warnings.

I expect there to be numerous app updates.  Monitor them.  Have a severe weather safety plan.

7 AM update

These graphics are from the Memphis, TN NWS

Scroll down for more graphics for the rest of the area.

Severe weather outlook

Tornado risk

Here are some additional info-graphics.

We have a significant risk of severe weather later today and tonight.

Some of the storms could produce damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes.  We can’t rule out some long-tracked tornadoes.  Monitor your severe weather alerts.  Have a safety plan.

If we have a solid line of storms, then the tornado risk will be lower.  Supercells would have a higher risk of tornadoes.

Supercells tend to be by themselves on the radar.  They can pull in more energy.

That is one aspect of the forecast that we will need to monitor.  Supercells?  Line of storms?  That remains the question.

Perhaps we will have a mixture.  Both supercells and lines of storms.

The NadoCast graphic shows a risk in our region for tornadoes.

We are concerned about flash flooding, of course.

As you know, some big rainfall totals are possible.

Here is my forecast for each county.  Rainfall totals.

Here is the latest rainfall outlook for each county.

Issued Tuesday at noon.

Monitor watches and warnings over the coming days.

This event will begin on Wednesday afternoon and end on Sunday morning.  On and off periods of showers and storms.  It won't rain all the time, but intervals of precipitation.  Some heavy.

Flooding is likely.  There will be periods of training thunderstorms.  Where those training storms occur, you can pick up 2 to 3 inches per hour.  That would enhance the flash flood threat.

The region will experience numerous road closures due to water, especially on Friday and Saturday.

Avoid flooded roadways.  

Find your county below, north to south.

Ste Genevieve and Perry County, MO.  Randolph, Jackson, Perry, Franklin, Jefferson, Hamilton, and White County in IL.

The current forecast is for
100% chance of 1 to 3 inches of rain.
90% chance of 3 to 5 inches of rain.
70% chance of 5 to 8 inches of rain.
A 40% chance of 8 to 10 inches of rain.
A 20% chance of greater than 10 inches of rain.

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Bollinger and Cape Girardeau County in MO. Union, Williamson, Saline, and Gallatin County in IL.  Union, Henderson, and Daviess County in KY.

The current forecast is for
100% chance of 3 to 5 inches of rain.
70% chance of 5 to 8 inches of rain.
A 40% chance of 8 to 10 inches of rain.
A 30% chance of greater than 10 inches of rain.

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Butler, Stoddard, Scott County in MO. Alexander, Pulaski, Johnson, Pope, Hardin, and Massac County, IL. Ballard, McCracken, Livingston, Crittenden, Webster, McLean, Lyon, Caldwell, Hopkins, and Muhlenberg County.

The current forecast is for
100% chance of 4 to 6 inches of rain.
90% chance of 6 to 8 inches of rain.
70% chance of 8 to 10 inches of rain.
A 50% chance of 10 to 12 inches of rain.
A 40% chance of 12 to 15 inches of rain.
A 20% chance of greater than 15 inches of rain.

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Dunklin, Pemiscot, New Madrid, and Mississippi County, MO. Lake, Obion, Weakley, and Henry County, TN.  Fulton, Hickman, Carlisle, Graves, Marshall, Calloway, Trigg, Christian, and Todd County in KY.

100% chance of 4 to 6 inches of rain.
90% chance of 6 to 8 inches of rain.
70% chance of 8 to 10 inches of rain.
A 50% chance of 10 to 12 inches of rain.
A 40% chance of 12 to 15 inches of rain.
A 20% chance of greater than 15 inches of rain.


Avoid flooded roadways.

If you have not signed up for this, then consider doing so.

Weather Call will call you when a warning is issued.  This is useful when we have tornadoes at night!

🌪️ NEW SERVICE 🌪️

I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service is available at the link below or by using the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com. It is simply another tool that allows you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. It will not disturb you if you are outside the warning box/polygon.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

This is the Hrrr model for Wednedsay.

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