Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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We are waking up to chilly temperatures.  Even some patchy frost.

5 AM temperatures.

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Today will be the quiet before the storm.  Most of tonight, as well.  Some broken sunshine today.  Warmer.

A few showers and storms will develop late tonight.  Probabilities are fairly low but not zero.  I can’t rule out small hail with any storms that do manage to form.  The chance of storms will peak over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (around 20%).

Overall, tonight will be dry.

A very active weather pattern will develop tomorrow into the weekend.

You will have already heard about the potential for severe weather and flash flooding.  Nothing has changed over the past 24 hours.

I am concerned about significant flooding in some areas.  A widespread 5 to 10 inches of rain is anticipated across the bulk of our region.

Rain totals could exceed 10 inches.  This is an extreme rainfall event.

Flash flooding is likely.  Life-threatening flooding is possible.

Avoid flooded roadways.

Don’t do this.  You put yourself and others at risk.

Why are we experiencing all of this rain?

The climatology maps show records amount of Gulf moisture.  PWAT values will peg out for this time of the year.  PWAT is a measure of moisture.

Here are the PWAT values.  Again, PWAT measures moisture in the atmosphere.

The purple zone are extreme moisture numbers.  Notice how they stall over our region.

Double-click animations to enlarge them.

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This is because the Gulf waters are so warm.  That warmth represents energy.

Here is the Gulf of Mexico anomaly map.

The red line is the current temperature anomaly.  Very warm waters.

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All of that energy must go somewhere.  This is why we are experiencing severe weather and heavy rain.

Check out the GFS model.  Rainfall totals.  These are just crazy numbers for a model.

The EC model is extreme but not as extreme as the GFS.

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Here is the blend of models.  You can see the theme.  Big numbers.

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Here is the WPC NOAA forecast, which has big rain totals.

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Here is the flood risk outlook from the WPC/NOAA

Wednesday flash flood outlook.  We are at a moderate risk.

Thursday outlook.  Another moderate risk.

Friday flood outlook.  Another moderate risk.

Saturday flood outlook.  This may be upgraded to a high risk of flooding.

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Here are some comments  from the WPC/NOAA

Strong language from them.

WPC The previous MDT risk inherited from the D4 was relatively maintained, however there was some expansion of the MDT to the northwest to account for a small trend within the forecasted alignment of the quasi-stationary front and amplitude of expected surface wave ejecting out of the southern plains. This period is considered to be a higher-end Moderate, meaning the prospects for a targeted high risk are within reason pending the previous period’s QPF outcome and the convective expectation as we get closer to the D3 time frame. The area of vested interest for a potential upgrade includes that corridor of northeast Arkansas up through western Tennessee, far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and slivers of both southern Illinois and Indiana. This setup is shaping up to be a more extreme flooding scenario considering the multi-day prospects and forecasted 72 to 96 hr rainfall totals reaching 10-15+ inches in the hardest hit locations. Be sure to prepare if you live in a flood zone anywhere from Arkansas, northeast through the Ohio/Tennessee Valley’s. Anyone surrounding will want to monitor this setup closely as small changes could have heightened impacts given the forecasted setup.

As mentioned above, in addition to heavy rain, severe weather will be a concern.

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Discussion

As mentioned above, a few storms may occur late tonight.  The concern will be lightning and small hail.  I suspect the bulk of the region remains dry tonight.

A higher severe weather risk will develop on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  A high-end severe weather event is possible.  That means baseball-sized hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.

Stay weather-aware.  Make sure you have multiple ways of receiving your severe weather information.

The hodographs are very large for this system.

A hodograph shows us the state of the atmosphere.  Those little pink curly lines represent a lot of rotation in the atmosphere.

They are long stretched hodo’s.  That is a signal for tornadoes.  Some strong and long-tracked.  This will need to be closely monitored.

This is for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

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Here are the Significant Tornado Parameter numbers for tomorrow.  You can see the colors pop over our region.  That means there will be spin in the atmosphere.

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The SREF tornado ingredients max out over our region on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Monitor watches and warnings over the coming days.

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Monitor updates.

Again, as mentioned above, severe storms are possible on Thursday and Friday, as well.

Needless to say, this is a lot of weather to cover.

Please stay abreast of the latest weather information.

Let’s not become storm wary.  Stay weather-aware over the coming days.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

This is the Hrrr model for Wednedsay.

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This is the GFS model from Tuesday into Saturday.  Round after round of rain.  Some heavy.

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