Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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We had a busy night of weather.  There were hundreds of reports of wind damage, very large hail, and a few tornadoes.

There were numerous reports of golf ball to tennis ball size hail in the area.

A couple of tornadoes touched down, as well.  The NWS will be conducting storm surveys today.

I suspect a few tornadoes will be added to this SPC/NOAA graphic.

Our primary concern yesterday was hail.  A secondary concern was wind.  Then, a few tornadoes.

The green represents hail.  Blue represents wind damage. Black triangles represent an extreme hail or wind report.  Red represents tornadoes.

These numbers will grow as more reports are added to the system

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Thankfully, that system has pushed off to our southeast.

Today will be quiet.  Tonight, as well.  Cool temperatures.

A very active weather pattern will develop late Tuesday night into the weekend.

I am concerned about significant flooding in some areas.  Rain totals could exceed 10 inches!  This is an extreme rainfall event.

The climatology maps show records amount of Gulf moisture.  PWAT values will peg out for this time of the year.  PWAT is a measure of moisture.

This is because the Gulf waters are so warm.  That warmth represents energy.

Here is the Gulf of Mexico anomaly map.

The red line is the current temperature anomaly.  Very warm waters.

All of that energy must go somewhere.  This is why we are experiencing severe weather and heavy rain.

Check out the GFS model.  Rainfall totals.  These are just crazy numbers for a model.

The EC model is extreme but not as extreme as the GFS.

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Here is the WPC NOAA forecast.  Big rain totals.

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As mentioned above, in addition to heavy rain, severe weather will be a concern.

Late Tuesday night, some storms will push into southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Some of those storms could be severe.

A higher severe weather risk will develop on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  A high-end severe weather event is possible.  That means baseball size hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.

Stay weather-aware.  Make sure you have multiple ways of receiving your severe weather information.

The hodographs are very large for this system.

A hodograph shows us the state of the atmosphere.  Those little pink curly lines represent a lot of rotation in the atmosphere.

They are long stretched hodo’s.  That is a signal for tornadoes.  Some strong and long-tracked.  This will need to be closely monitored.

This is for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

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The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined a very large hatched risk zone.

Hatched means high-end severe.

Here is the general outlook for Wednesday.  We are in a level three risk.  A level four is possible.

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Monitor updates.

Severe storms are possible on Thursday and Friday, as well.

Needless to say, this is a lot of weather to cover.

Please stay abreast of the latest weather information.

Let’s not become storm wary.  Stay weather-aware.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

This is the Hrrr model.   This shows you the Saturday showers and thunderstorms.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

This is the NAM model for Wednedsay.

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This is the GFS model from Tuesday into Saturday.  Round after round of rain.  Some heavy.

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