Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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We are waking up to cool temperatures.  Nothing extreme.
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Today will be chilly.  Tonight and tomorrow, as well.  This round of chilly temperatures will be short-lived.

Temperatures will begin to warm by Monday and Tuesday.

Dry conditions today and tomorrow.

A larger storm system will push into our region on Monday and Tuesday.

A few showers are possible on Monday and Monday night as a weak system moves across the region.

The stronger system will arrive on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Data continues to speed the front up.  It now looks as if it will reach southeast Missouri by the late morning or early afternoon hours.  Then, it will push eastward through the afternoon and evening hours.

A band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.

Locally heavy rain and lightning are likely with this band.

I continue to monitor the threat of severe weather, but confidence remains low.

Several ingredients are lacking for a more significant severe weather event.

Dew points appear to struggle.  The dew point is a measure of moisture.  Low dew points would inhibit the severe weather threat.

Instability (CAPE) appears limited, as well.

The higher severe weather probabilities may remain to our south.

The Storm Prediction Center/NOAA continues to shift its outlook.  That is not unusual.  They usually shift it around as the event draws closer.

For now, I continue to monitor the data.  I will know more tomorrow.  I will send out some app alerts this weekend, as well.  Watch for those.

Here is the current severe weather outlook for next Tuesday.  A level two and three risk zone.

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Compare that graphic to yesterday’s outlook.  The level three risk has shifted south and west.

This event is still five days out, so there will still be shifts in their outlook.

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Again, confidence in severe weather is low for our local area.

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The Memphis, Tennessee, NWS/NOAA posted this update on their page.

They have confidence as medium in their area.  They are farther south.

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There are questions about the dew points/moisture.

There are several ingredients you need for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

1.  Lift (cold front/warm front).
2.  Instability (unstable air mass)
3.  Wind shear.  An increase in wind speed with height.  A turning of wind direction with height.
4.  Moisture.  Higher dew points.

For severe weather, I usually watch for 58 or above in the dew point department.

For a more significant severe weather outbreak, I usually look for a wider warm sector.  This does raise some questions about the extent of the risk in our local area.  I will be monitoring trends.

If these numbers begin to increase, then the threat will increase.   We are still a few days out.

That blue color represents higher dew points.  Notice that they stay to our south in the current data.  Again, this raises questions about the severe threat locally.  I believe the threat to our south will be higher.

GFS model.  Dew point forecast for Tuesday afternoon.

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The EC model.

A similar look.

You can see the line of showers and thunderstorms racing across our region on Tuesday.

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Here are the EC and GEFS ensembles.  This is where the low-pressure center should track.

A track into northeast Missouri would place our region in the warm sector.  That is where thunderstorms occur.

The cold sector is on the north-northwest side of the low (the red L).

EC model.

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GEFS 

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The GFS model shows a strong level-level jetstream.  Strong wind fields/wind shear.  This is a signal for severe weather.

GFS model.  These are very strong low-level winds.  Above 75 mph, several thousand feet aloft.

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EC model 850 MB winds.  Low level jetstream.

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Looking higher up in the atmosphere.  This is the 500 MB level jetstream.  This is another signal for severe weather.

You can see the yellow streak of higher wind speeds moving into our region.  Strong jetstream wind fields are a signal for severe weather.

Notice how the black lines diverge over our region.  That shows a strong lifting motion.

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Monitor updates.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.