Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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We are waking up to cool temperatures.   Cooler north.  It’s not quite as chilly across our southern counties.
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Good morning, everyone.

A cold front pushed through the region last night.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanied the front.

There was even a surprise hail event over a small part of southern Illinois.  One thunderstorm storm cell managed to intensify.  There were several reports of pea to dime size hail!

That system is pulling away from our region.

Today and tomorrow will be breezy at times.  It will be mild today.  Cool tonight.  Mild tomorrow.  Dry.  A few passing clouds.

Another front will push across the region tomorrow night.  This will usher in colder air on Saturday and Sunday.  Seasonably cold air.  Nothing extreme.

A larger storm system will take shape on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

This system will have quite a bit of moisture to work with.

A few showers will be possible as early as Monday and Monday night.  The main push of showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Ending on Wednesday.

Some of the guidance is indicating locally heavy rain with this cold front.  Strong to severe thunderstorms, as well.

We have been watching this one for a few weeks.

The Storm Prediction Center/NOAA has placed a severe weather risk across portions of our region for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The yellow is a level two severe risk.  The orange is a level three risk.

I would not be surprised if the severe weather risk zone was pushed farther north, as well.

The concern will be damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes.  It is a bit early to know the extent of the risk locally.  I will be monitoring it and updating the forecast as we draw closer to the event.

Here is the current severe weather outlook for next Tuesday.  A level two and three risk zone.

You can see that system on the EC and GFS models.

EC model.

This is the Tuesday evening weather map.  The area of low pressure is centered in Kansas, moving northeast.

GFS model.

A similar look.

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Here are the EC and GEFS ensembles.  This is where the low-pressure center should track.

A track into northeast Missouri would place our region in the warm sector.  That is where thunderstorms occur.

EC model.

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GEFS 

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The EC model shows a strong level-level jetstream.  This is a signal for severe weather.

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Looking higher up in the atmosphere.  This is the 500 MB level jetstream.  This is another signal for severe weather.

You can see the yellow streak of higher wind speeds moving across our region.

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Dew points pop into the upper 50s and perhaps 60s.  Dew points in the 60s would certainly be sufficient for severe weather.

The dew point is a measure of moisture.

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I will be monitoring it. Expect some app alerts this weekend leading up to the event. I will likely hold off until my confidence increases a bit more, which will happen on Saturday and Sunday.

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The NAM model shows the mid-week system.

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Here is the latest rainfall forecast for the event: Monday through Wednesday.  These totals could increase.

You may double-click on the image to enlarge it.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.