Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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5 AM

Here is today’s update.

Link https://wp-talk.weathertalk.com/february-19-2025-bitterly-cold-temperatures/

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4 AM

I am working on today’s update.

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7 PM

I do not expect any adjustments to the going forecast.  Now, we deal with the impacts.

Use care if you must drive in the snow.  Give yourself extra time.  Bundle up.

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6:20 PM

A large area of snow will continue spreading eastward to encompass the entire area through 8 PM.  Snowfall rates of 1 inch or more per hour will reduce visibility to 1/4 to 1/2 mile at times.  Expect a significant deterioration in travel conditions through the evening.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0116
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0601 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

   Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas...Southeastern
   Missouri...Western Tennessee...Western Kentucky...Southern Illinois

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 190001Z - 190300Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will gradually increase across portions of
   western Kentucky and western Tennessee through the evening. Rates
   will decrease through time, though some moderate to heavy snowfall
   rates up to 1"/hr will be possible in heavier bands.

   DISCUSSION...Radar analysis shows the gradual shift of snowfall into
   portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee this evening. Moderate to
   heavy snowfall is ongoing across southeastern Missouri into southern
   Illinois, where a persistent heavy band extends, driven by 700-850
   mb frontogenesis and isentropic ascent. This enhancement will
   gradually shift eastward through time, with potential for a few
   heavier bands with occasional 1"/hr rates. HREF ensemble guidance
   shows a down trend in rates overall through the evening, with a
   transition to mostly light snow for portions of western Tennessee.
   Confidence is highest in potential for better rates across
   northwestern Kentucky into southern Illinois.

   ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

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6 PM

Everything with the forecast is on track.

Numerous accidents are being reported in areas that are reporting snow.

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4:25 PM

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2:09 PM Update

Use care when shoveling snow.

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We are still monitoring a large area of snow moving eastward across south central and southeast MO. This area of snow will continue pressing east over during this afternoon and into tonight.

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1:20 PM

Video update

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1:05 PM Update

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a special weather statement concerning the snow.

Mesoscale Discussion 0114
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern KS...far northeastern OK
   and the Ozark Plateau

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 181820Z - 182345Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across portions of
   eastern KS and the Ozarks over the next few hours. Rates of 1-1.5
   in/hr are expected within the heavier banding.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1820 UTC, regional radar and surface observations
   showed a broad area of winter precipitation ongoing over the Plains
   and beginning to shift eastward toward the Ozark Plateau. A
   pronounced band of heavier snow has slowly coalesced over the last
   couple of hours across portions of southeastern KS and northeastern
   OK. Likely supported by 850-700 mb frontogenesis and isentropic
   ascent, heavy snow with rates over 1" per hour have been observed.
   As ascent from the upstream shortwave trough continues to intensify,
   so to should the snow band as it gradually shifts eastward into
   parts of MO and northern AR.

   Hi-res model guidance and area RAP soundings generally agree with
   observational trends and suggest strengthening of the band is likely
   over the next several hours. Very cold low-level temperatures (teens
   to single digits) will support efficient dendrite generation with
   snow to liquid ratios in excess of 15:1. Confidence is highest that
   the heavier rates will occur generally along and south of I-44
   across parts of northern AR and southern MO through this evening.

   ..Lyons.. 02/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

1 PM UPDATE

Here comes the snow.  It is moving eastward

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11:30 AM

NWS Partner briefing (this goes over the latest graphics).

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I am concerned that banding could enhance snow totals in this area.

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10 AM Update

Video Update

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9 AM update

Light to moderate snow will continue falling over parts of the area, generally north of the yellow line on the image. Where the snow is falling harder, the roads have become snow covered and slick. The snow is expected to slowly diminish by late morning before the main batch of snow arrives into southeast MO by early afternoon.

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8 AM

What is the chance of 1/2 mile visibility or less?  This is around 9 PM tonight.

That is a strong signal for heavy snow.  Especially over portions of southeast Missouri and extreme southern Illinois.

This is around midnight tonight.  Heavy snow over portions of our region.

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7:45 AM Update

Here is a timing graphic from the NWS in St Louis, MO.

This is NOT talking about the snow that is currently falling.  This is the MAIN event timing.

Here was the Paducah, KY NWS

The same general idea.  A bit of a different look because St Louis pushed the band outward in the middle.

Take the general idea from these graphics.

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6:30 AM Update

NOTE:  Snow showers are already occurring over portions of our region. 

A dusting to an inch or so of snow will be possible with this morning’s snow showers. 

The snow showers are difficult to detect on the radars, but if you  load my local city-view radars, then you can click the winterize button and it will show you the light snow.

Beau’s Video Update

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Radar shows snow in the region.  Mainly northern counties.  This is not the main snow.

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Here are the precip totals from 1 pm to 4 pm.  This gives you an idea on where snow will be falling this afternoon.  Then, this all spreads eastward.

These are not snow totals.  These are melted totals.

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Everything is on track for a winter storm to impact our region over the next 24 hours.

No significant changes from 24 hours ago.  I tweaked the snowfall map.  I added an inch or so here and there.

Here is my latest snow totals map.  It is possible, in some areas, that I am too low.

Focus on impacts and not totals.  Snow covered roadways, bitterly cold temperatures, bitterly cold wind chill values.

Banding is likely with this event.  Banding enhances snow totals.  It can take a 2 to 4 inch snow event and turn it into 4 to 8 inches.

Banding showing up on the Hrrr model guidance.

Example of what banding looks like on radar.

Thunderstorms are possible tonight.  That means thundersnow.  That will enhanced snow totals, as well.

Where the banding sets up is where the heaviest totals will develop.
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Again, there may be some snow showers this morning.

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Gusty winds will cause blowing snow. ,as well.

Here are some of tonight’s wind gusts.  Double click this image to enlarge it.

10 to 25 mph winds are likely.  This will cause lower visibility, from time to time.

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My seven day outlook.

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The Paducah, Kentucky, NWS posted this video update (5 AM)

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Let’s look at the timing.  You can see the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee at the bottom.  Just follow the timing lines.

Again, keep in mind, some areas are already reporting light snow.

This timing graphic is for the MAIN snow event (later today and tonight).

This is the approximate time the snow will start.  Then, when it will end (approximate).

The time span is not how long the snow will last.  The time span is when it will begin (give or take).

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Check out all the warnings.  Winter storm warnings are in pink.

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Let’s check out snow probabilities.

What is the chance of two or more inches of snow.

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What is the chance of four or more inches of snow?

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What is the chance of six or more inches of snow?

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There is a high probability of this winter storm bringing widespread snow covered roads to the region.

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Here are some graphics that our friends at NWS/NOAA posted.

Double click these images to enlarge them.  Some of them are hard to read.

Southern counties

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The rest of the area