Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Here Are Your Beau Dodson Winter Weather Radars 

Don’t forget the local city-view radars have a winterize button.  Click that button to see precipitation type.

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

*NEW* Zoom interactive radar (with storm chaser streams)
https://wtalk.co/AVWG7GM7

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Bottom Line Up Front

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Today and Tonight’s Weather

No major weather concerns today or tonight.

It will be cold today into tomorrow.

Some stubborn stratus clouds may linger and that will make it feel colder.

Check out the 6 AM satellite view.  That is a lot of low clouds to scour out.  We will hope for the best.  If clouds do linger, then temperatures will be a bit cooler.

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Saturday and Sunday’s Weather

Locally heavy rain this weekend.  A low-level severe thunderstorm risk, as well.

We already have river flooding ongoing in the region.  Additional rain won’t be welcome.

There could also be some overland field flooding, ditches flooded, sharp rises on streams, and flooded roadways.

Locally heavy rain with some embedded thunderstorms are likely late Friday night into Saturday evening.

Here is what the WPC/NOAA has outlined for a flooding risk.  A moderate risk of flash flooding for portions of our region.

Avoid flooded roadways.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

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We will need to monitor rain totals, especially over Kentucky and Tennessee.

My going forecast is 

0.50″ to 1.00″ of rain over my northwest counties (northern portions of SE MO and northern portions of southern IL).
1.00″ to 2.50″ of rain across the rest of the region.  Pockets of greater than three inches likely.  Especially from the Missouri Bootheel into western Tennessee and western Kentucky.

Here is a model probability graphic showing the probability of three or more inches of rain.

Notice how it is slanted over our southeastern counties.  There has been a shift towards the southeast for the higher totals.  I will monitor today’s data for additional adjustments.

This graphic simply shows you where the probabilities are higher for heavier totals.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

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The National Weather Service/NOAA has issued a flood watch for portions of the region.

The flood watch is in green.  There will be some flooding issues this weekend across portions of the area.

The flood watch does include the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee, as well.  The NWS left off my northwestern counties.  Rainfall totals in that area will be lighter.

Flood watch in green

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Seven Day Rainfall Totals from NOAA/WPC.

Locally heavy rain is likely this weekend.

Let’s monitor that heaviest band across TN and KY.  It could still shift around a county or two.

The WPC/NOAA totals (shown below) are a bit higher than I am forecasting.   We will see how it goes.

Either way, a lot of rain is likely over the coming days.  Some flooding issues are likely.

That heaviest band may shift a bit farther south southeast.  I will monitor it.  The WPC is farther northwest than most data with the biggest totals.  See the second graphic (I like it a bit better).

Double click the image to enlarge it.

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I like what this model below is showing.  I think it might be a bit more realistic vs the above graphic.

Double click the graphic to enlarge it.

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We also have a risk of severe thunderstorms.  That will mostly be from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Here is where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

The light green zone is where sub-severe storms are possible.  Lightning.

The dark green zone is a level one (low level) risk.  That is where a few storms could produce damaging wind  and perhaps an isolated tornado.

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Temperatures will spike on Saturday as the warm front moves northward and then plummet Sunday and Sunday night behind the cold front.

Saturday temperatures

Sunday high temperatures.  Brrr

Monday morning wind chill values (what the temp will feel like to exposed skin).
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Future-cast Radars. 

What radar might look like Friday night into Saturday night.

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Wintry precipitation possible next week

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I am tracking more precipitation towards the middle of next week.  For now, I am watching Tuesday and Wednesday.  Model guidance is showing snow in our region.  Cold temperatures, as well.

It is a bit early for certainties on next week’s system.

Here is what the WPC/NOAA posted for light to moderate snow next Tuesday and Wednesday.

What is the probability of 2.5″ or more of snow?

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This is the GFS model.  One of many models.

Confidence in next week’s system is medium.   It is still six to seven days away.  That is a long time in the world of weather.

The exact track and intensity of the system will be the determining factor as to whether we see accumulating snow.  Stay tuned.

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