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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today. Lightning is possible Saturday and Saturday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. A few of the thunderstorms later today could produce gusty wind and nickel size hail. A small severe risk.
.3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. We will need to watch several precipitation events next week. If they end up rain vs snow/ice, then some flooding could occur. This will be highly dependent on storm track.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? MONITOR. I will monitor next week.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring Sunday night into next Thursday. A couple of rounds of precipitation will be possible. It is still a bit early to know if snow or ice will be a major concern. Monitor updates.
8. Is freezing rain in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring Sunday night into next Thursday. A couple of rounds of precipitation will be possible. It is still a bit early to know if snow or ice will be a major concern. Monitor updates.
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Do you have storm anxiety? Or, perhaps someone you know does.
The Paducah, Kentucky, NWS has announced a storm anxiety webinar.
the webinar on storm anxiety has been rescheduled to Feb. 27 at 6 PM CST!
The registration link is
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7149421972512193625
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Field and Brush Fire weather risk level.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Showers and isolated storms move across the region through tonight. Some scattered activity continues on Thursday, mainly across the southern part of the area. After a dry day on Friday, more rain spreads across the region Friday evening through Saturday night. Yet another system moves across the region early next week. Dispersion will be poor over the coming days with shallow mixing heights.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Notes:
THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.
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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
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A quick glance. 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Patchy fog. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Higher chances east vs west. Temperatures may fall as the front moves through. Some locations will record their highs before noon.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered north. More numerous south and southeast.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 50° to 55°
Southeast Missouri: 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel: 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 50° to 55°
Southern Illinois: 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky: 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee: 66° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming north northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48° during the morning. In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 5:26 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. A chance of a few remaining showers or drizzle. Higher chances far south vs north.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 12 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri: 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel: 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois: 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 36° to 40°
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area): 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 38° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee: 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: north northeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Rain will be ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:34 AM
Moonset: 2:00 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of light showers during the PM hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~20%
Southeast Missouri ~20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri: 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel: 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois: 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky: 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee: 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35° during the morning. In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 5:27 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Thickening clouds. Rain developing. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time, but more likely after midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri: 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel: 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 36° to 38°
Southern Illinois: 36° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area): 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee: 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B, and monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 12:24 PM
Moonset: 3:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Warmer. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri: 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel: 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois: 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky: 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee: 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast becoming south southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38° during the morning. In the 50s and 60s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 5:28 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly before midnight. Rain may end as a rain snow mix over our northern counties with no impacts expected.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri: 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel: 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois: 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area): 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee: 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the evening, and monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 1:24 PM
Moonset: 4:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Coo. A slight chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri: 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel: 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois: 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky: 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee: 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 34° during the morning. In the 30s and 40s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 5:29 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain or snow. Some data is dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 26° to 30°
Southeast Missouri: 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel: 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 26° to 30°
Southern Illinois: 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area): 32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee: 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. I will monitor the risk of light freezing precipitation. Confidence in that is low.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 2:28 PM
Moonset: 5:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Unsettled weather into next week.
- Falling temperatures today.
- A few showers and storms today. We dry out late tonight.
- Rain chances ramp back up Friday night into Saturday night.
- Monitoring on and off precipitation chances Sunday into the middle of next week. Precipitation amounts and type remain in question.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Good morning, everyone
Unsettled weather will continue into next week. There will be several chances of precipitation.
Today and tonight
A cold front is moving through the region. Some of you will record your high temperatures early this morning. Temperatures will fall through the day.
We will have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms today. With time, the precipitation will taper off west to east.
Precipitation will come to an end tonight.
Turning cooler tonight, as well.
A few of the storms today could produce 40 mph wind and nickel size hail. A low severe risk.
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Friday into Saturday night
Our next cold front will already be moving towards our area on Friday.
There could be a few showers Friday afternoon over mainly southeast Missouri. The rest of the region will see increasing clouds.
Shower activity will increase Friday night. Perhaps a rumble of thunder. You can expect scattered to numerous showers on radar.
Saturday will be warm with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few of the storms could be strong, but for now the risk of severe weather appears minimal. I will monitor it.
The cold front will move across the region Saturday night. It will turn colder beyond the front.
The rain could end as a light rain snow mix with no impacts.
Sunday into next week.
A complex weather forecast as we move into Sunday onward.
Temperatures will be tricky to forecast from north to south. A boundary will be draped in or near our region. It will be cold north of the boundary. It will be warm south of the boundary.
Disturbances will move along the boundary and provide lift for precipitation.
Temperatures will be the deciding factor in the precipitation type. We could have a wide range of precipitation. From freezing rain, sleet, snow, and plain old rain.
It remains too soon to know the outcome for these systems.
Guidance has trended a bit colder. Some of the guidance keeps the precipitation to our south and we remain dry with little or no precipitation.
Other models bring several winter storms through our region with accumulating snow and ice.
I am hoping to know more tomorrow and then with each passing day we will increase our confidence in the final forecast outcome.
A few light showers will be possible on Sunday. A few rain or snow showers will be possible Sunday night. COnfidence in precipitation Sunday and Sunday night is low. Some of data is simply dry. I will monitor it. If there were to be precipitation, then it would be light.
Additional precipitation chances will arrive Monday through Wednesday. This is likely the time-frame of greatest concern. We will need to watch the data closely.
Data shows the potential for more precipitation beyond Wednesday.
A lot to watch in the long range and a lot of moving parts to the forecast. Monitor updates moving forward. Winter may not be finished for some of us.
Here are the anticipated seven day precipitation totals.
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Short-Range Future-cast Radar
Let’s look at the future-cast radar. This is the high resolution Hrrr model. The time-stamp is located in the upper left.
This is for today into Friday morning. You can see the scattered showers and thunderstorms. Plenty of dry time, as well. On and off showers and thunderstorms.
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
Future-cast Radars
Let’s look at the future-cast radar. This is the GFS model. Time-stamp upper left.
This shows you Sunday through next Wednesday night. As you can see, a few waves of precipitation will be possible.
Too early to know if it will be freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Rain, as well. We could have all of the above from north to south in the region. Monitor updates.
This is just one model of many.
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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