Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? MONITOR.  I will monitor next Tuesday and Wednesday.

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  MONITOR.  I am monitoring Sunday night into Wednesday.   

8.  Is freezing rain in the forecast? MONITOR.  I am monitoring Sunday night into Wednesday.

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Do you have storm anxiety?  Or, perhaps someone you know does.

The Paducah, Kentucky, NWS has announced a storm anxiety webinar.

the webinar on storm anxiety has been rescheduled to Feb. 27 at 6 PM CST!

The registration link is

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7149421972512193625

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Notes:

THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.

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->  A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.  SEE THE DAILY NUMBERS FARTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.  This graphic shows an average across the region.

For example, look at today’s temperatures.  Notice the large range.  See the detailed forecast farther down in this blog update.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

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A quick glance.  48-hour forecast Graphics

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Wednesday Forecast: Patchy fog.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  A wide range of temperatures from north to south.  It is not going to rain all the time.  On and off.  Quite a bit of dry time, as well.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri:  44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri:  48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel:  50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois:  40° to 44°
Southern Illinois:  42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties):  44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky:  48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee: 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction:  East becoming south southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  28° to 48°   during the morning.  In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of intense storms.  I can’t rule out gusty wind and hail. Mainly over portions of western KY and wester TN.  A low level severe threat.  Confidence in severe weather remains low.  There is a stable layer of air (called a CAP) that could keep the severe risk neutral.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.  Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 5:26 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will rise south of the warm front.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri:   42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri:   44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel:  48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois:  40° to 42°
Southern Illinois:  42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties):  48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area):  48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky:  50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border):  50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee:  50° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 55°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of intense storms over portions of western KY and western TN.  Overall, the risk of severe weather is low, but not zero.  The primary concern would be 60 mph wings and quarter size hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  Monitor updates.  Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 10:52 AM
Moonset:  12:47 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Higher chances east vs west.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri:  60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri:  62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel:  66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois:  58° to 62°
Southern Illinois:  62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties):  64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky:  64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee: 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction:  Becoming north northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  40° to 48°   during the morning.  In the 50s and 60s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.  Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 5:26 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of a few remaining showers or drizzle.  Higher chances far south vs north.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 12 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri:   34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri:   34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel:  36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois:  32° to 35°
Southern Illinois:  34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties):  36° to 40°
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area):  40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky:  40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border):  38° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee:  40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast  at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Rain will be ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:34 AM
Moonset:  2:00  AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of light showers during the PM hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~20%
Southeast Missouri ~20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri:  44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri:  44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel:  46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois:  42° to 45°
Southern Illinois:  43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties):  44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky:  50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee: 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction:  East northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  25° to 35°   during the morning.  In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 5:27 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Increasing clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time, but more likely after midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri:   36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri:   40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel:  43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois:  36° to 38°
Southern Illinois:  36° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties):  38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area):  42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky:  42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border):  40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee:  44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast becoming southeast at 7 to 14 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B, and monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 12:24 PM
Moonset:  3:11 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. 1.  On and off shower and thunderstorm chances into the weekend.
   2.  It won’t rain all of the time.  A lot of dry time, as well.
   3.  A few thunderstorms are possible.  There is a small risk of severe weather over portions of KY/TN later today and tonight.  The primary concern is high wind and quarter size hail.  The tornado risk is low, but not zero.
   4.  Watching a couple of winter weather events next week.  Still a bit early to know the impacts for our region.  Monitor updates if you have travel plans.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good morning, everyone

Unsettled weather into next week.  Monitor updates.

Today and tonight

We are waking up to clouds and scattered fog/drizzle.  The general rule will be clouds today.  Patchy fog.  Scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms.   It will not rain all of the time.  On and off into tomorrow.

A few of the thunderstorms could be intense this evening and tonight.  Mainly over KY and TN.

The overall severe weather threat appears to be low, but not zero.

There is a CAP today.  A CAP is a stable layer of air near the surface.  A CAP can prevent severe weather.  If that CAP does not erode, then there won’t be a severe risk.

Overall, confidence in severe weather today and tonight remains low, at best.

I will send out some alerts if necessary.  Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Here is where the SPC has outlined for a risk of severe storms.  The dark green zone is the marginal risk area (level one risk).

This graphic will be updated several times today.  Adjustments are still possible.

The light green is simply where lightning and pea size hail might occur.

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Thursday into Thursday night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday (esp central and eastern counties).  The chance of precipitation will taper Thursday evening and night.

A cold front will sweep across the region Thursday afternoon and night.  This will bring colder air back into the region.

Let’s look at rainfall totals.

Rainfall totals today into Friday morning.  Double click images to enlarge them.  The heaviest totals will be across KY and TN.

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Short-Range Future-cast Radar

Let’s look at the future-cast radar.  This is the high resolution Hrrr model.  The time-stamp is located in the upper left.

This is for today into Friday morning.  You can see the scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Plenty of dry time, as well.  On and off showers and thunderstorms.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

.Friday into Sunday

Active pattern continues.  High confidence in the Friday and Saturday forecast.

Friday will likely be mostly dry.  No significant weather concerns during the day.

Thickening clouds as we move through the day.

There is a low-end chance of light showers after 3 PM.  Again, most of the day will be dry.

Another cold front moves into the region Friday night into Saturday night.  This will bring additional showers and thunderstorms.  We are certainly in an active pattern.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely as we move through Friday night and Saturday.  Tapering off Saturday night/Sunday morning.

For now, the risk of severe weather looks minimal.  I will monitor it closely.

Perhaps a lingering shower on Sunday.

Saturday will be mild ahead of the cold front.

Colder air filters into the region Saturday night into next week.   This sets the stage for next weeks weather.

Let’s look at those temperatures.

Saturday  highs

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Sunday highs

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Monday Highs

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As you can see, temperatures will turn cooler as we move through the weekend into early next week.

We will need to watch Sunday night into the middle of next week.  Data shows several systems moving through the fast jetstream flow.

This could bring a wintry mix and rain back into the region.

It appears we may remain mostly north of the boundary.  That places us in the colder air.

Will it be cold enough for freezing rain, sleet, and snow?  That appears possible, but it is still early for details.

Most of the data shows light precipitation.  Some models, however, show heavier totals.  This will need to be monitored over the coming days.

We are still five to seven days out.

There are a wide range of solutions, at this point.  It would be unwise to try and guess precipitation totals and type this far out.

I am closely monitoring trends in the guidance.

Overall, the trends over the last few days has been for it to be a bit colder next week.

I will know more tomorrow and Friday about the potential wintry precipitation next week.

If you  have travel concerns, then monitor updates moving forward.

Future-cast Radars

Let’s look at the future-cast radar.  This is the GFS model.  Time-stamp upper left.

This shows you Sunday through next Wednesday night.  As you can see, a few waves of precipitation will be possible.

Too early to know if it will be freezing rain, sleet, and snow.  Rain, as well.  We could have all of the above from north to south in the region.  Monitor updates.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Let’s look at some additional rainfall totals.

This is the seven day precipitation outlook.  This takes us well into next week.

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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