Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.   

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NO.   

8.  Is freezing rain in the forecast? NO.

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Notes:

THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.

Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

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A quick glance.  48-hour forecast Graphics

Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  44° to 46°
Southern Illinois  44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  15° to 25°    during the morning.  In the 40s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Increased field fire risk over SE MO and SW IL.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 5:15 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:   Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois  28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:00 AM
Moonset: 3:11 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Tuesday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri 55° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  52° to 55°
Southern Illinois 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky  52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  20° to 30°    during the morning.  In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:16 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 30° to 34°
Southern Illinois  32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:45 AM
Moonset: 4:21 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Wednesday Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri 55° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  50° to 52°
Southern Illinois 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky  54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  25° to 30°    during the morning.  In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:17 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois  32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: North 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:24 AM
Moonset: 5:34 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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Thursday  Forecast:   Increasing clouds.  A chance of afternoon showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~  60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Increasing coverage during the afternoon.  Lower chances during the morning.
Timing of the precipitation:   After  11 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  25° to 30°    during the morning.  In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index:  2. Low
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 5:18 PM
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Thursday  Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.  A thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~  80%
Coverage of precipitation:    Numerous
Timing of the precipitation:   Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel  44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee  44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:58 AM
Moonset: 6:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Brrr

We are waking up to cold temperatures.  The good news is that warmer air is on the way!

Here were the 6 am temperatures.

Wind chill values were a few degrees colder.

A warming trend begins today and will be with us into the weekend.

I can’t rule out someone hitting 60 degrees this week.

Today’s High Temperatures.  Double click images to enlarge them.

Tomorrow

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

I do not have any significant weather concerns through Wednesday night.

There will be a higher fire risk over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois today and tonight.  Perhaps into tomorrow.

Keep that in mind.  Perhaps hold off on burning brush or fields.

Our next weather system will deliver rain to the region on Thursday and Friday.  Rain may linger into Saturday.

Peak rain chances will be Thursday night and Friday.  A rumble of thunder will be possible.  I do not have severe storms in the forecast.  That is the good news.

Let’s take a look at rainfall totals.

It appears that many locations will hit the one inch mark.  Locally higher.

Double click images to enlarge them.

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Again, most of that rain will fall Thursday night into Friday evening.  Showers will linger into Saturday.

I will keep an eye on the arctic front as we move into the middle of February.  A lot of data does bring it back into our region.

For now, confidence in the placement of that front is low.

I am watching several precipitation events next week and the week after, as well.

Let me show you some temperature data.

For the week ahead.  The five day running temperature anomaly favors above average temperatures.  The warm colors are warmer than average.  The blue and purple colors are colder than average.

Now, let’s look at the five day running anomaly for February 6th through the 11th.  It still favors near to above average temperatures.

You can see the cold air to the northwest.  The trend in the guidance has been warmer vs colder.  I will continue to watch it.

The biggest question, in the long range, is do we see the arctic cold front return to our region towards the second and third week of February.

If so, then snow and ice changes will return.  For now, confidence in the cold returning is medium.  I do think we see some cold intrusions, but I am not sure on the longevity of the cold.

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Let’s Look At The Future-cast Radar

What radar might look like later this week.  This is the primary precipitation event this week.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

EC model

And GFS Model

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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