Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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-> NOTE  Temperatures will vary GREATLY this week based on snow and ice cover.  Areas with snow and ice cover could be 10 degrees colder than shown here. See the daily hand written forecast farther down in this update for your location.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

A look at the weekend snow system

Check back around 9 AM for this

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48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~28° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction:  North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15° during the morning.  Then, 15 to 25 during the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in areas with icy roadways.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Bitterly cold.  If we have more clouds, then low temperatures will be higher.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 5° to 10°
Southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 15°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20° to 22°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 4° to 6°
Southern Illinois ~ 6° to 8°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 8° to 12°
Far western Kentucky ~ 12° to 15°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 14° to 16°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 8° to 12°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in areas with icy roadways.
Moonrise: 11:45 AM
Moonset: 12:30 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Wednesday Forecast:  Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~25° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction:   Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10° during the morning.  20 to 30 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in areas with icy roadways.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:55 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 5°
Southeast Missouri ~ 8° to 12°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 14° to 18°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0° to 5°
Southern Illinois ~ 5° to 10°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 6° to 8°
Far western Kentucky ~ 10° to 12°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 12° to 14°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 8° to 12°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 12° to 15°
Winds will be from this direction:  Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 10° during the morning.  10 to 20 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in areas with icy roadways.
Moonrise: 12:15  PM
Moonset: 1:42 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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The LIVE Winter Storm Blog has been initiated.

Here is the link for the live winter storm blog.  CLICK HERE

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Thursday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction:  Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15° during the morning.  15 to 25 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in areas with icy roadways.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:56 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of snow showers.   Mainly far south.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly south).  Monitor updates.
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 8° to 10°
Southern Illinois ~ 10° to 14°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 14° to 18°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 20°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10° to 15°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in areas with icy roadways.
Moonrise: 12:52  PM
Moonset: 2:56 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Friday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers.  Coverage and intensity of snow will need to be monitored.  See the winter storm blog.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~  40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 25° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 25° to 30°
Southern Illinois ~ 25° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 25° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 25° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~25° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 25° to 30°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 25° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction:  East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15° during the morning.  20 to 25 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Icy road conditions.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:56 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainy before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 20°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 15° to 20°
Southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 16° to 18°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 20°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 14° to 16°
Northwest Tennessee ~  20° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction:  Light winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:52  PM
Moonset: 2:56 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. 1.   Cold weather will linger into the weekend.  Temperatures will vary GREATLY based on cloud cover and location.  Those with snow and ice will experience colder temperatures.  Those areas without clouds will be colder.  Where clouds linger, temperatures can be 10 degrees warmer.
   2.   Cold wind chill temperatures.  Some nights will dip below zero.
   3.   Icy roads will continue to be an issue in the hardest hit areas.
   4.   Avoid power lines and damaged trees.
   5.   I am watching a snow event late in the week.  Confidence in the track remains low.  Some snow accumulation will be possible, if it tracks far enough north.  I will start the live winter storm blog later this morning.  I will send out links to the Beau Dodson Weather App.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

I am going to post on the live winter storm blog.

The LIVE Winter Storm Blog has been initiated.

Here is the link for the live winter storm blog.  CLICK HERE

See the weather forecast discussion there.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

I posted these above

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Here is the NAM model.

I posted these above

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Let’s look farther out.  The Monday and Wednesday systems.

GFS model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

I posted these above

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EC model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.
Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

I posted these above

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Canadian model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

I posted these above

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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