Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 15, 2024: Stormy pattern. Turning colder mid-week into the weekend.

 

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Lightning is possible today.  Lightning is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  LOW END RISK.  A small risk of severe weather today.  Damaging wind is the main concern.  A tornado is possible, but the risk is small.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED.  Isolated issues are possible today.  Mainly commonly flooded areas and ditches.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees?  YES.   Wednesday night, Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  POSSIBLE.  I am watching colder air this week (mid to late week).

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NOT AT THIS TIME.   I can’t rule out flurries or snow showers along the arctic front Thursday night and Friday.

8.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO .

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Fire weather risk level.

Monday: 3. Very low risk.
Monday night: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring heavy rainfall to the entire region today. More showers and a few storms are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday, then a cold front will pass late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Arctic air will arrive behind a stronger cold front Thursday night. It will be cold, but dry through the weekend.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

 

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.



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Monday Forecast:    Showers and thunderstorms.  Mild for December.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~  80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%

Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°

Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers.  Mainly during the evening.  Patchy dense fog. Rain ends west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the evening.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°

Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:54 PM
Moonset: 8:37 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Tuesday Forecast: Patchy morning fog.  Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers over the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee.  Lower chances north.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°

Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 60°

Winds will be from this direction: East northeast becoming east southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%

Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 50°

Winds will be from this direction:  Wind from the south at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:03 PM
Moonset: 9:27 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Ending west to east.  Turning colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.  Tapering through the day west to east.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°

Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°

Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 25 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A slight chance of evening showers.  Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  A small chance during the early evening hours.
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 23° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 28°

Winds will be from this direction:  Wind from the north at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:11 PM
Moonset: 10:05 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Thursday Forecast:   Partly to mostly sunny.  Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°

Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~  42° to 45°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°

Winds will be from this direction:  Variable wind direction becoming south at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25° during the morning.  In the twenties during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Thursday  Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 25° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~28° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 26° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°

Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:10 PM
Moonset: 10:36 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Friday Forecast:   Partly to mostly sunny.  Cold.  A slight chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°

Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°

Winds will be from this direction:  West northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25° during the morning.  In the twenties during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy. Cold.  A slight chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~24° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°

Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:17 PM
Moonset: 11:03 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

    1.   Mild today and tonight.
    2.   Widespread showers and storms today.
    3.   Numerous showers and storms Tuesday night and Wednesday.
    4.   Turning colder mid to late week.
    5.   Watching a system between the 23rd and 26th.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good morning, everyone

I hope you had a nice weekend.

We are waking up to summer temperatures.   Normal lows in late August are in the 60s!

Check out our 6 am temperatures

Quite amazing!

Portions of the region received heavy rain overnight.   Some areas picked up more than an inch of rain.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms have been moving across the region.  See the radars at the bottom of the page.  That will continue into today.  Tapering later this afternoon and evening.

A few evening showers are possible over mainly western Kentucky.

A few of the storms could be severe today.  We have a low end risk of damaging wind and tornadoes.

Locally heavy rain will occur today.  Some locations will pick up one to two inches of additional rainfall.  That could cause ditches to overflow with water.  Some commonly flooded roadways could flood, as well.

It will be mild today.

Clouds may linger tonight.  If clouds clear out, then patchy dense fog will be possible tonight into tomorrow morning.

Tuesday will be mostly dry.  A few showers may push into the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.   Perhaps along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will push back into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The chance of rain will be a bit higher south vs north (see the daily details and maps at the top of the page for rain probabilities).

We dry out Wednesday night.  We also turn colder Wednesday night.  Nothing extreme, but it will be colder.

Thursday into Sunday will be chilly.  Saturday and Sunday night will be the coldest two nights.  Lows will likely dip into the teens and lower twenties.

We will have a chance of flurries or snow showers late Thursday night into Friday night.  At this time, I do not expect accumulation.  As always, monitor updates.

I am watching another system around Christmas.  For now, that appears to be wet and not white.  One model shows a wintry mix, but it is the outlier.

All other data points to rain.

We are in an active jet stream pattern.  We could have three systems the week of Christmas.  Busy busy.

For now, the charts are not showing any winter storms, but it is that time of the year.  I will be keeping a close eye on each system.

Let’s look at rainfall totals.

This is through Tuesday morning.  Locally higher totals are possible.

Here are the weekly totals (this covers today’s rain event and the Tuesday night/Wednesday event)

Let’s look at snowfall totals from the ensembles.

Both the GFS and EC through the end of the month.  Not looking great for snow lovers.

I will monitor the charts.

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Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

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Here is the NAM model.

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Let’s look farther out.  The Monday and Wednesday systems.

GFS model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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EC model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

 


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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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