Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? LOW CHANCE. I am watching a system Friday night and Saturday. Another one early next week. For now, the threat of lightning appears small. I will monitor it.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? YES. Temperatures will drop below freezing Tuesday night, Wednesday night, and Thursday night.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? UNLIKELY.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? LOW CHANCE . A dusting is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday over mainly southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Other locations should monitor updates. Overall, the risk of impacts is low.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO .
Remember, bridges and overpasses freeze first.
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Fire weather risk level.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Fair to poor dispersion is expected today with mixing heights in the 1800-2600 feet range and humidity remaining above 50%. Wednesday will be breezy with very good to excellent dispersion, humidity remaining above 40%, and mixing heights of 4500 to 6000 feet. There is a small chance of a snow shower or two tonight across mainly western Kentucky with additional light rain and snow showers across much of the area Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall totals are expected to remain below 0.05 inches and not snow accumulations anticipated.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
Long range video
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48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Tuesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers. Rain chances will be higher over our eastern counties vs west. Turning cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Higher chances during the morning.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers or rain/snow showers. Mainly over our eastern counties. Any accumulation would be light.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:14 PM
Moonset: 1:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of rain and snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold. Any remaining snow showers should come to an end. Watch moisture leftover on bridges and overpasses. Untreated surfaces.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 16° to 18°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 20° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:43 PM
Moonset: 2:41 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:36 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:17 PM
Moonset: 3:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of afternoon showers. Mainly over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 pm.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 448°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:58 PM
Moonset: 5:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a few showers remaining. The rain may come to an end by nightfall. Some clearing late.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:48 PM
Moonset: 6:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Colder air filters into the region today and tonight. Lingers into Thursday night.
- A few showers today. A few flurries or rain/snow showers tonight and Wednesday. Any accumulation would be light.
- Warming trend Friday into Saturday.
- Rain chances return Friday into Saturday. Centered on Friday night.
- Another rain event possible early next week. Active pattern.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Good day, everyone.
Today we remember those who died on December 10, 2021. One of the worst local tornado outbreaks of my lifetime.
Our thoughts and prayers are with all of these families on this difficult day.
I don’t believe any of us will ever forget that night. Although, we wish we could.
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Let’s take a look at the weather for the coming days,
Today will deliver a mix of sun and clouds. Spotty light showers or drizzle will be possible over mainly western Kentucky. Smaller chances elsewhere. Rainfall totals today will be in the trace range. Not much.
A cold front will push across the region today and tonight. As a matter of fact, temperatures may actually fall today. Gusty winds, as well.
A few light rain showers or snow showers will accompany the front this afternoon and tonight. I don’t expect accumulation.
As always, watch bridges and overpasses. They freeze first. If any moisture remains on surfaces, once temperatures fall below freezing, then use caution.
Temperatures will remain above freezing today. Tonight, they fall below freezing.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the 20s to around 30 degrees.
Another system will push across the region on Wednesday. Mainly late morning into the evening hours.
That system will bring rain and snow showers back into the forecast. Mainly across Illinois and Kentucky. A lower chance over Missouri and Tennessee.
Rainfall (melted precipitation) amounts of 0.00″ to 0.10″ will be possible. Snow totals of 0.00″ to a dusting will be possible.
48 hour precipitation totals. Light.
Temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the 30s and lower 40s. Thus, snow impacts are not expected during the day.
If precipitation were to linger into the evening hours, then there could be some concerns. Temperatures Wednesday night will drop into the teens and twenties.
If moisture remains on surfaces, then it could turn to ice. If the precipitation ends before sunset, then I doubt we see any impacts.
Let’s keep an eye on how long precipitation lingers. That will be key to any travel problems. For now, we don’t expect much in the way of impacts.
I will send out an app update later this morning.
Here is the Hrrr model. Snowfall totals. As you can see, little to none. A hint of snow. Dusting, at most.
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Here are two more maps from the NWS
Thursday through Friday morning will be dry. Chilly.
Again, the coldest morning will be Thursday morning. Bundle up the kids at the bus stop. Wind chill values will drop into the teens.
Another cold front will push into the region on Friday afternoon and night. This will bring additional rain chances.
Peak rain chances should be Friday night and Saturday. Tapering off Saturday afternoon and night. A few showers could linger into Saturday night.
GFS model future-cast radar for that event and the one after.
EC model of the weekend system and the one after.
Yet another cold front is possible early next week. An active pattern.
I am watching four to five more fronts between now and the end of the month.
Models are showing a cold front around Christmas, as well. That is in the long long range. I will monitor it.
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Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
The Hrrr model
Double click images and animations to enlarge them.
Here is the NAM model.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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