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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? YES. Temperatures will drop below freezing each night this week into Saturday night.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? POSSIBLE. Several cold mornings over the coming week. When we have temperatures in the teens, the wind chill values will drop into the single digits to teens.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? MONITOR. A small chance of freezing drizzle tonight over mainly southern IL and northwest KY.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 2. Very risk.
Wednesday: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Surface high pressure remains in control through tonight. Winds will remain light from the north. Temperatures will remain cold, with highs in the 30`s today. Temperatures moderate back to near normal for Wednesday with increasing cloud cover. Most areas remain dry on Wednesday as a front passes through. Minimum relative humidity will drop into the 40s to 60s percent both today and Wednesday. Then another blast of cold air returns temperatures to near where they are now, or even a little colder, ending the work week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. We will have to see if clouds scour out. That can be tricky during the cold season. Clouds tend to linger. A higher chance of clearing sky conditions over southeast Missouri vs areas farther east. It will be cold today.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20° before 11 AM. Then, 20 to 35 the rest of the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold. Bundle up the kids at the bus stop.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of freezing drizzle over mainly southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Monitor your app alerts.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated freezing drizzle possible over mainly southern IL and northwest KY.
Timing of the precipitation: After 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 23° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates concerning freezing rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates concerning freezing rain.
Moonrise: 9:25 AM
Moonset: 6:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Breezy. A small chance of early morning freezing drizzle. Otherwise, a small chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers over northwest Tennessee and Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 16° to 20°
Southern Illinois ~20° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 20° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:12 AM
Moonset: 7:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 30°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 35°
Winds will be from this direction: North 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 14°
Southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 15°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 12° to 14°
Southern Illinois ~13° to 16°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 14° to 16°
Far western Kentucky ~ 14° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 14° to 18°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 13° to 16°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 16° to 18°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold
Moonrise: 10:52 AM
Moonset: 8:50 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some afternoon clouds. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30° (colder before 9 am)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold. I will monitor the risk of freezing drizzle.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor
Timing of the precipitation: Monitor
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates concerning a chance of freezing rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: 11:26 AM
Moonset: 10:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Cold week ahead. Another shot of bitterly cold air late Wednesday night into the weekend.
- Cold at the bus stop this week. Bundle the kids up.
- I am monitoring the risk of freezing drizzle tonight and tomorrow morning (Tuesday).
- A small chance of showers Wednesday over our southern counties.
- Low-end shower chances of precipitation Friday night into Sunday.
- Watching another system next week.
Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Good day, everyone.
Use care this morning. There is still patchy black ice from yesterday’s snow event.
A good chunk of the region received trace amounts of snow yesterday. A few spots picked up an inch or so. That did cause some traffic accidents (esp after sunset last night).
We are waking up to clouds. That has kept temperatures 4 to 8 degrees above what was anticipated.
Widespread 20s this morning with wind chill values in the teens. Brrr.
Speaking of cold weather!
As a reminder.
Kids at the bus stop this week will need to be bundled up. It is going to be quite cold this week. Several mornings will deliver lows in the teens with wind chill values of 0 to 15 above.
Today will deliver a mix of sun and clouds. Remember, clouds during the autumn and winter can be stubborn to scour out. Thus, clouds may linger today.
Clouds will keep temperatures cooler, as well.
As we move through tonight, there could be just enough lift for patchy freezing drizzle to develop. This would be a problem since roadways are cold.
It only takes a trace amount of freezing drizzle to cause major traffic problems.
As of this morning, the chance of freezing drizzle has been capped at 10% to 20%. Confidence in it developing is not high enough to warrant an advisory or high probabilities.
That could change as fresh data arrives today and we get a better idea of the outcome. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app for updates. I will likely send out an alert about the concerns.
It is just as possible that we remain dry tonight. Again, confidence in precipitation is low. If we do experience freezing drizzle then use extreme care on untreated roadways and bridges.
On Wednesday, temperatures won’t be quite as cold. That is good news! Unfortunately, a cold front arrives Wednesday night and delivers another round of bitterly cold air that will linger into the weekend.
Isolated showers are possible Wednesday.
It will be bitterly cold again by Thursday night with widespread teens.
Temperatures will climb to seasonal levels by Sunday and Monday with a chance of showers.
I continue to watch another system next week with perhaps high rain probabilities.
The GFS brings it into the region Monday night into Tuesday night.
The latest run of the GFS model shows that quite nicely.
The EC model brings that system in on Sunday night and Monday. It is a bit faster.
.Let’s look at the future-cast radars.
The Hrrr and NAM 3 K are the higher resolution models.
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
The Hrrr model shows those showers developing throughout today into tonight.
Double click images and animations to enlarge them.
Here is the NAM 3K model.
It does show some precip tonight. We will need to monitor it.
We will briefly warm up on Wednesday. Another blast of cold air will arrive Thursday into the weekend.
I am watching the potential of freezing rain Friday night. Confidence in that occurring remains low. I will monitor trends over the coming days.
The cold wave will be harsh on those who must work outdoors, the homeless communities, and pets/livestock. A prolonged period of below average temperatures.
Don’t forget our outdoor friends.
Wind chill values will dip into the teens and single digits. Wind chill is what the body feels.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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