Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? YES. Temperatures will drop below freezing each night this week into the weekend.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? POSSIBLE. I am monitoring wind chill values Thursday into the weekend. Bitterly cold air returns.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? YES. Flurries and light snow today. 0″ to 1/2″ of snow will be possible. Isolated higher depending on surface temperatures. Not a big deal, but watch for slick spots when temps are still below freezing.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? MONITOR. I am watching Friday night.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Monday: 3. Very low risk.
Monday night: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
An upper level disturbance will bring light snow to much of the area today. Cold temperatures are expected with highs in the 20`s to 30`s. Northerly winds are expected today and tonight and will shift toward the southwest on Tuesday. Minimum relative humidities will be around 50-70 percent today and 40-50 percent on Tuesday.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
0″ to 1″ of snow will be possible today. Surface temperatures, in some areas, could be above freezing once the flurries and light snow begins. That would cut down on the chance of accumulating snow.
Double click on images to enlarge them.
Timing of snow chances. Cold temperatures to come.
Beau’s Seven Day Outlook Video
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of snow flurries and snow showers. Some light snow accumulation is possible (trace to one inch)
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25° (colder before 8 AM)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Monitor the chance of snow. There could be some icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars. Snow is likely in some counties.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Some evening clouds. Clearing. Cold. A chance of an evening snow flurry or snow shower over mainly Kentucky and Tennessee. Any remaining precipitation will end early in the evening.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM (far east southeast counties)
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 15°
Southeast Missouri ~ 15° to 20°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10° to 14°
Southern Illinois ~12° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 13° to 16°
Far western Kentucky ~ 14° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 14° to 18°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 13° to 16°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 15° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values. Monitor the risk of icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Moonrise: 8:29 AM
Moonset: 5:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 35° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 35° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 35° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 35° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15° before 11 AM. Then, 20 to 35 the rest of the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold. Bundle up the kids at the bus stop.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 23° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold
Moonrise: 9:25 AM
Moonset: 6:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Breezy. A small chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers over northwest Tennessee and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (south)
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:12 AM
Moonset: 7:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 35° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 30°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: North 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 16°
Southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 22°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 12° to 14°
Southern Illinois ~13° to 16°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 14° to 16°
Far western Kentucky ~ 14° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 14° to 18°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 13° to 16°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 16° to 18°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold
Moonrise: 10:52 AM
Moonset: 8:50 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some afternoon clouds. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30° (colder before 9 am)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold. A chance of freezing rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 23°
Southern Illinois ~20° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates concerning a chance of freezing rain. That could cause icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: 11:26 AM
Moonset: 10:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Cold week ahead. Another shot of bitterly cold air late Wednesday night into the weekend.
- Cold at the bus stop this week. Bundle the kids up.
- Flurries and light snow showers are possible today. Any snow accumulation would be light.
- A small chance of showers Wednesday over our southern counties.
- I am watching for patchy freezing rain Friday night.
Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Good day, everyone. I hope you had a nice holiday weekend.
As a reminder.
Kids at the bus stop this week will need to be bundled up. It is going to be quite cold this week. Several mornings will deliver lows in the teens with wind chill values of 0 to 15 above.
Snow Chances Today
A fast moving clipper system will move across the region today. It will bring snow flurries and snow showers. Some light accumulation will be possible. Right now the forecast is for 0″ to 1/2″ of snow. Isolated higher amounts possible. See graphics and future-cast radars below.
At 6:30 AM radar showed the snow to our north. Moving south southeast. Those numbers are temperature readings (6:30 AM)
Double click images to enlarge them.
Temperatures today will range from the upper 30s north to around 40 degrees south. This raises questions on snow accumulation. If temperatures are above freezing, while the snow is falling, then it will be a struggle to see much in the way of accumulation.
It is cold this morning. Once precipitation begins, be careful on bridges and overpasses. Untreated roadways, as well.
Here is the current thinking on snow totals. This is from the NWS. I agree with their forecast.
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Let’s look at the future-cast radars. The blue colors are snow.
The Hrrr and NAM 3 K are the higher resolution models.
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
The Hrrr model shows those showers developing throughout today into tonight.
Double click images and animations to enlarge them.
Here is the NAM 3K model.
We will briefly warm up on Wednesday. Another blast of cold air will arrive Thursday into the weekend.
I am watching the potential of freezing rain Friday night. Confidence in that occurring remains low. I will monitor trends over the coming days.
The cold wave will be harsh on those who must work outdoors, the homeless communities, and pets/livestock. A prolonged period of below average temperatures.
Don’t forget our outdoor friends.
Wind chill values will dip into the teens and single digits. Wind chill is what the body feels.
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A weak system could bring a few showers to the region on Wednesday. Mainly our far southern counties. The Bootheel and then east along the Kentucky/Tennessee border southward. Chances are low.
And again, I will watch for freezing rain or snow showers Friday night.
The long range models show a couple of systems during the 2nd and 3rd week of December. Long way off and plenty of time to watch those.
For now, they are showing somewhat warmer temperatures and rain. Again, long way off for details.
I am watching December 9th and 10th for a system. It occasionally shows up in the long range charts. Low confidence this far out.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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