Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
.
.
Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
.
Fire weather risk level.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
A cold front will pass through the area today bringing breezy north winds this afternoon and drier air. Afternoon humidity Wednesday will drop into the 35 to 50 percent range, with the lowest readings across southeast Missouri. After below normal temperatures Wednesday, both temperatures and humidity will gradually increase for the end of the week. Fair to good dispersion is expected ahead of the cold front Tuesday, with poor dispersion behind the front Wednesday.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Fall break outlook
.
48-hour forecast Graphics
.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
.
.
Tuesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A few more clouds over our eastern counties vs wester.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: North 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 6:38 PM
.
Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 5:44AM
Moonset: 6:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 6:36 PM
.
Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 6:41 AM
Moonset: 6:34 PM
The phase of the moon: New
.
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~76° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: Light south wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 6:35 PM
.
Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 7:38 AM
Moonset: 6:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 6:33 PM
.
Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 8:38 AM
Moonset: 7:19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
-
- Nice week of weather ahead.
- Warm today.
- Cooler weather tomorrow into Thursday.
- Dry conditions.
- Watching the tropics for fall breakers.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
.
Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Welcome to October!
We have an amazing forecast.
It will be warm today ahead of a dry cold front. Much cooler air filters into the region tonight. I suspect we will see some scattered lows in the 40s by tomorrow morning!
You can see that on this map.
Tuesday morning lows.
Tuesday morning lows.
It will feel like autumn outside!
Dew points will rapidly drop behind the cold front. Remember, dew points are what make it feel muggy or humid outside. These are some very nice dew points for October 1st. We will drop from the 60s into the 30s/40s. Dry air.
We will still have some clouds today. Especially over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Less clouds west vs east. These are Helene clouds that continue to circulate around our region.
The good news is that it will remain dry today.
Wednesday through Sunday should deliver plenty of sunshine. Dry conditions. Mild daytime highs. Cool overnight lows.
We may see a warming trend Saturday and Sunday. I kept temperatures in the 70s, for now. I may need to bump those up into the 80s.
The EC guidance shows those 80s.
See the streak of 80s on the 4th, 5th, and 6th? Then, cooler air arrives. That will be behind a cold front.
Here is a chart that shows those 80s. So, I may need to increase temperatures for the weekend.
A cold front passes through the region Friday. It will likely be another dry front.
Another cold front Sunday. For now, I have it dry, as well. Cooler behind that front for next week.
I continue to watch the Gulf of Mexico and the southeast United States for unsettled weather later this week into next week.
Whether a tropical system forms remains questionable. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 40% chance of development.
Either way, squally weather will be possible this week and next week along the Gulf of Mexico and the southeast United States.
Also, many areas are closed. Roads were destroyed by Helene. If you are traveling to the southeast United States, then check ahead for the latest information.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
.
Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
.
Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
.
Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
.
Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
.
Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
.
.
The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
_______________________________________
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
.
This animation is the NAM Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the Hrrr Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the WRF Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the GFS Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the EC Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
