September 20, 2024: Monitoring rain chances. Warm conditions into the weekend. Somewhat cooler next week.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring the weekend into next week.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. The Storm Prediction Center has a low level risk of severe weather over parts of southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon and evening. Mainly the northern portions of southeast Missouri. Overall, the risk appears minimal. I will monitor it.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.

8. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

10. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

11. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 3. Very low risk.
Saturday: 4. Low risk.
Saturday night: 3. Very low risk.
Sunday: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Southwesterly flow will allow for an increase in moisture through Saturday as unseasonably warm and humid conditions can be expected. Small chances of rain are also possible today and tonight as a weak disturbance moves through. The risk of a wetting rain begins to increase towards the second half of the weekend with more widespread shower and storm chances.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over mainly northern portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. A lower chance elsewhere.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (mainly MO IL)
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 pm.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 85° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 85° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 85° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 85° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A small chance of high winds with thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but if clouds thicken then check the radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 6:54 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Mostly clear over Kentucky and Tennessee. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly MO/IL.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:25 PM
Moonset: 9:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 85° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 85° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 85° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 85° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 6:53 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few more clouds over Missouri and Illinois vs Kentucky/Tennessee. A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mainly over MO/IL.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:02 PM
Moonset: 11:00 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Chances will decrease as you travel south and east.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: Light south southwest wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 6:51 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:45 PM
Moonset: 12:16 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Monday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: South 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 6:50 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 10:37 PM
Moonset: 1:26 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Warm temperatures to continue into the amazing.
2. Patchy fog at night.
3. Monitoring small shower chances today into Saturday. Most areas will remain dry.
4. Monitoring the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms late this weekend into next week.
5. Somewhat cooler next week. Unsettled.
6. Watching the tropics.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Drought conditions continue to be an issue across the region.

Here are the latest drought monitor maps.

Double click images to enlarge them.

There are concerns about wild fires. Use care if you must burn brush or fields.

We are waking up to warm conditions. It feels more like August than September.

We will have a warm weekend. The good news is that next week will feel a bit more like autumn with cooler conditions. Less humid, as well.

We will have a chance of a couple of showers and thunderstorms today across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. . If a storm forms, then it could produce gusty winds.

Overall, most of the region will remain dry.

A cold front will nudge towards the region this weekend and early next week. See the daily forecast numbers in each region at the top of the page.

You can see the spread of rain chances. Today through Sunday, the chance of a few showers and storms will be a bit higher over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A bit lower as you travel south and east.

Let me show you some graphics. This will give you an idea on rain probabilities.

If you have outdoor plans, and clouds thicken, then check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.

Saturday rain probabilities. (graphic below)

Saturday night rain probabilities.

Sunday rain probabilities.

Sunday night rain probabilities. (the graphic below)

Monday rain probabilities.

Monday night rain probabilities.

You can take the general idea from the above graphics.

A slow moving cold front will push across the region over the coming days. It will bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Here is the latest rainfall outlook. This covers the next six days. Higher totals north vs south. It won’t be enough to end the ongoing drought.

Central and eastern view

Western view

The rain chances will linger into early next week. Peeking Sunday into Monday night. Then, tapering off as we move through Tuesday morning and afternoon.

A few showers could linger into Wednesday. I will monitor that.

I continue to watch the tropics.

Guidance continues to show a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week. It is way too soon to know the outcome of this.

You can see it on the GFS model. One model of many. It will be several more days until we know if a system will develop and where it will track.

If you have travel plans to the Gulf of Mexico late next week, then monitor updates.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.