Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 28, 2024: Hot. Monitoring storm chances. The eighties return this weekend.

 

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

.


.

Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  A chance of lightning over our northern counties today and tonight.  A chance of lightning area-wide late Thursday night into Friday night.  Scattered lightning Saturday into Monday (esp southern counties).

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  POSSIBLE.   There is a low level risk of severe thunderstorms today and tonight over mainly our central and northern counties.  See graphics farther down in the weather blog.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  NO.  

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE.  Temperatures will approach or reach 100 degrees, at some recording stations through Thursday.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees?  YES.  Heat index values will rise above 100 through Thursday of this week.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees?  LOW RISK.  There is a low risk of a few locations reaching 110 degrees through Thursday (heat index).

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  NO.

9.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NO.

10.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.  
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines  Freezing fog possible, as well.

.

Fire weather risk level.

Wednesday: 5.  Medium risk.
Wednesday night: 4.  Low risk.
Thursday: 5.  Medium risk.
Thursday night: 4.  Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Hot and largely dry conditions will continue through Thursday. A few showers or storms are possible this afternoon and evening for portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Elsewhere, rain chances hold off until a cold front moves into the region Friday into Saturday. Deep mixing over the next several days will lead to mainly good smoke dispersion. Minimum RH values may drop below 30 percent across parts of west Kentucky today and Thursday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

.

 

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

 

 

48-hour forecast Graphics

.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.



.

.

.

Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A  chance of thunderstorms over portions of southeast Missouri, portions of southern Illinois and portions of northwest Kentucky.  A few storms could be intense.  If we have thicker clouds, then shave a few degrees off the high temperature.  The chance of rain will be lower as you travel south in the region.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 94° to 98°
Southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 96° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 94° to 98°

Southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 96° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 96° to 100°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 96° to 100°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 106°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.  Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
.

Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of thunderstorms over northern portions of southeast Missouri, northern portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°

Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:43 AM
Moonset: 4:33 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
Southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 96° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°

Southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 96° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 96° to 100°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 96° to 100°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 106°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:27 PM
.

Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~2 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°

Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 1:41 AM
Moonset: 5:22 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Friday  Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms..
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 90°

Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°

Winds will be from this direction:  West southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM
.

Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~  40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°

Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:45 AM
Moonset: 6:02 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms..
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°

Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°

Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:25 PM
.

Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°

Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:49 AM
Moonset: 6:35 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms..
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%

Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°

Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°

Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
.

Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°

Winds will be from this direction: North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:53 AM
Moonset: 7:02 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.



.

Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

    1.     Hot weather this week.  Heat wave.  Use care.
    2.     A chance of a thunderstorm Wednesday/Wednesday night over mainly the central/northern half of the region.
    3.     Drought conditions will worsen this week.
    4.     Heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees today through Thursday.
    5.     Monitoring shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday PM into Sunday night.
    6.     Seasonal temperatures return Saturday through Tuesday.

 

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
We also have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.
WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you if your home is inside the warning polygon. If you are outside the polygon it will not disturb you.
More information on the WeatherCall subscription service here.

.

Beau’s Forecast Discussion

The hot weather continues.

We are waking up to warm temperatures.  Here were the 6 am temperatures.

Some reporting stations once again touched 100 degrees yesterday afternoon.  Heat index values popped above 100 degrees, as well.

Here were the regional 4 pm temperatures.  This heat wave extends from Mexico into Michigan.  A slightly smaller area than Monday.

Double click on the image to enlarge it.

Here were our heat index values at the peak of the heating.  It was hot!

The hot temperatures will continue today through Friday.  There are some clouds over our northern counties this morning.  Some spotty showers and storms, as well.  That could help shave a few degrees of the thermometer today.  We will just have to see how much clearing there is.

Heat index values of 98 to 104 degrees will be common this afternoon.  I can’t rule out some higher heat index values.

Please use care in the heat.

Coaches will want to postpone practice until the morning hours or late evening hours.  It will be dangerous to hold practice right after school into the early evening hours.

We are waking up to scattered thunderstorms.  Mostly across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Our central and northern counties.

Here is what the 6 am radar looked like.

These storms will likely weaken over the coming hours.  Dissipating with time.

Late this afternoon and evening we may have a few more showers and thunderstorms develop over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  The chances are higher as you travel farther north.

With time, storms will weaken with time.  Especially as we move into the overnight hours.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region in a level one severe weather risk today and tonight.  They brought it fairly far south.

Here is the official SPC outlook.   Again, this may be a bit too far south.  I think the odds of severe weather will be a bit higher as you travel north in the region vs south.  I will monitor it and send out app notifications if need be.

The dark green zone is the area of concern for a few severe storms.  Damaging wind is the main concern.

The good news is that a cold front will push into the region Friday and Saturday.  Two fronts, as a matter of fact.

The first front will bump into the hot moist air and trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The chances will begin late Thursday night and continue into Friday evening.

A second cold front will push into the area Saturday and Sunday.  This will trigger some additional scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.   I am closely monitoring the speed of the front to see if some showers will linger over our southern counties into Monday.

Unfortunately, not everyone will experience beneficial rain.  Rain totals will range from nothing to 0.30″.  Thunderstorms could produce much higher totals.  The strongest of storms could produce more than an inch of rain.

Here is the latest official NOAA rainfall outlook for the coming days.

I did bump up rain chances this weekend.  Notice the probabilities are higher.

This is not a drought breaking rain.  Sure, a few locations could pick up a decent rain if a thunderstorm moves overhead, but most areas will receive less than a quarter of an inch.

I posted this yesterday and will post it again today.

This is the soil moisture map.  Some reporting stations have gone without rain for nearly four weeks!

Double click images to enlarge them.

Temperatures will lower into the 80s for highs Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.  Perhaps middle/upper 80s Saturday and Sunday.

Humidity levels will lower by early next week.  This will at least make it feel somewhat nicer outside

 


.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

.

.

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
.

.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

 

_______________________________________

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

.

This  animation is the NAM 3k Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

.

This  animation is the Hrrr Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

.

This  animation is the WRF Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

.

This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

.

This  animation is the EC Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

.

..

..

.
.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.
.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

.

.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

.

.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.

.

Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

2016-11-19_11-50-24

.


 

 

Comments are closed.