Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 92° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 92° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:05 PM
Moonset: 1:17 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Monday  Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 94° to 98°
Southeast Missouri ~ 94° to 98°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 94° to 98°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 94° to 98°
Southern Illinois ~ 94° to 98°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 94° to 98°
Far western Kentucky ~ 94° to 98°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 94° to 98°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 94° to 98°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 94° to 98°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:50 PM
Moonset: 2:20 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last quarter

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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
Southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 96° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 96° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 96° to 100°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 96° to 100°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: :
Moonset: 3:35 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
Southeast Missouri ~ 96° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 96° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 96° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 96° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 96° to 100°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 96° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 96° to 100°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 106°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:43 AM
Moonset: 4:33 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Well, last week delivered amazing weather to the region.  An early taste of autumn.  Some locations even dipped into the 40s for overnight lows.

It was dry, of course.  Many areas need rain.  Some of you have told me that you have not received rain over the past three weeks.  Dry dry dry.

The dry ground will make this week hotter.  Dry ground heats faster.

Temperatures will rise into the 90s today through Friday.  Peak temperatures will likely be Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.  Mid to upper 90s will be common.  A few reporting stations will likely hit 100 degrees!  Perhaps some of the hottest temperatures of the summer (actual air temperatures).

Heat index values will not be the highest of the summer.  Remember, we had some weeks with 110 to 120+ degree heat index values.  That was because dew points were in the 80s.

Dew points will mostly be in the 60s this week.  Perhaps some low 70 degree dew points.  That equals heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees.

The National Weather Service has stated that a heat advisory might be necessary.  Either way, it will be hot.  Use care, as always.

Don’t forget our outdoor pets.  Change their water bowls with fresh water.  It will be hot for them, as well.

A cold front will slowly make its way into the region Thursday and Friday.  This will bump into the warm and moist air.  This will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The chance of precipitation will be low during the day Thursday.  Rain probabilities will slowly increase Thursday night into Friday night.

For now, I have kept Saturday and Sunday dry.  That is assuming the front passes all the way through the region.

Cooler and less humid air will arrive Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday.  Temperatures will drop back into the 80s.

Here is the latest long range temperature outlook for next weekend into the following week.  The blue color represents higher chances of below average temperaturs.

As far as rainfall totals go, it does not look like we will receive drought busting rains.  For now, rain totals are likely to range from nothing (some locations will miss out) to 0.15″.  Locally higher in thunderstorms, of course.

Here is the official WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast for the next seven days.  Not much.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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This  animation is the NAM 3k Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the Hrrr Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the WRF Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the EC Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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