August 21, 2024: Beautiful weather. Warming trend this weekend into next week (hot). A mostly dry forecast.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I am watching next week.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. Temperatures will be hot next week. I can’t rule out some 100 degree readings.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values will rise above 100 early next week.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Wednesday: 5. Medium risk.
Wednesday night: 5. Medium risk.
Thursday: 5. Medium risk.
Thursday night: 5. Medium risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Dry conditions will continue through this week into the weekend. Afternoon humidity will drop mostly into the 35 to 45 percent range on today, and the 30 to 40 percent range Thursday. Fair to good dispersion is expected today and Thursday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A slight chance of a light shower towards Butler County, Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:59 PM
Moonset: 8:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:37 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:26 PM
Moonset: 9:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 92° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 99° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 7:36 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:55 PM
Moonset: 10:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 92° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 92° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:35 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 8 pm.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:28 PM
Moonset: 12:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 8 pm.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:05 PM
Moonset: 1:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. An amazing forecast this week. Cooler. Less humid. Lower dew points.
2. It will be dry and that is a problem for those who did not receive rain over the past two weeks.
3. I am monitoring a return to the 90s in the long range

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

We are waking up to 50s! Nice weather. Low humidity. Feels like early autumn outside.

6 AM temperatures

There were even some 40s over southeast Missouri. This graphic below showers you the 6 am temperatures.

Double click images to enlarge them.

A small disturbance will brush our western counties today in southeast Missouri. That will lead to a few clouds and perhaps a light shower towards Carter, Ripley, and Butler Counties. The atmosphere is fairly dry and it may be too dry for the rain to reach the ground. I did at a 10% chance of showers. No big deal.

You can see the 6:30 AM radar showing the rain up north.

I know some of you need rain. You will have to wait a while.

Temperatures today through Thursday will remain nice. Low humidity levels.

I am forecasting a warming trend Friday into next week. The nineties will return this weekend. The good news is that humidity levels won’t be all that high. It will feel hot working in the sun, but it won’t be unbearbale.

Humidity levels will rise next week and it will begin to feel muggier. Especially by Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Model data indicates a mini-heat wave this weekend into next week. I can’t rule out some reporting stations reaching 100 degrees. That would be some of the hotter air of the summer, thus far.

We did have many days in the 90s but not many days did we reach 100 degrees.

Heat index values (feels like temperatures) will rise above 100 next week, as well.

Let me show you some model data and what they are showing for high temperatures.

The GFS goes hog wild with high well into the 100’s. I am not buying this. For some reason it is running too hot.

The EC model makes more sense to me and I believe this will verify.

The blend of models shows temperatures in the nineties.

The bottom line is that it will be hot this weekend into next week.

A weak disturbance will pass through the region Saturday night. I may need to add 20% rain chances with it, as well.

I am watching Monday through Wednesday of next week for a few pop up storms. For now, this does not appear to be a widespread precipitation event, but I will keep a close eye on it.

We need some sort of tropical system to come up from the Gulf of Mexico to bring widespread rain. That is always a wild card in August, September, and October. For now, nothing is showing up.

There are concerns that drought conditions will worsen.

Portions of the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley have a risk of rapid onset drought during late August and early September, as abnormally dry conditions that have been experienced recently may continue. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.