June 24, 2024: Hot and muggy. Wednesday cold front.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible Tuesday into Wednesday. Another chance Saturday/Sunday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. A few of the thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday could be intense. I will monitor Saturday/Sunday.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. Locally heavy rain is possible with any thunderstorms that form over the coming week.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values today and tomorrow will range from 98 to 106 degrees. Locally higher. I will monitor Friday through Monday, as well.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Heat Safety

Extended periods of heat and cold will impact different people in different ways.

Don’t forget to check on the young and elderly during this hot weather.

We are experiencing a typical summer heatwave, but even typical heat can cause issues.

Fire weather risk level.

Monday through Monday night: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday night: 5. Medium risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Expect a drier and less humid air mass today. Transport winds will be quite light today resulting in rather poor dispersion. Winds increase out of the southwest on Tuesday leading to much better smoke dispersion. It continues to look like a rather high chance for wetting rains Tuesday night into Wednesday as a front moves through the area. Drier and cooler air moves in on Thursday. Another chance for rain arrives next weekend.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 93° to 96°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 92° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 92° to 95°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 93° to 96°
Far western Kentucky ~ 93° to 96°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 93° to 96°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 0 to 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast wind 0 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:00 PM
Moonset: 8:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Tuesday Forecast: Heat alert. Mostly sunny. Hot and very muggy. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Excessive heat likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 2 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 95° to 100°
Southeast Missouri ~ 95° to 100°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 95° to 100°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 95° to 100°
Southern Illinois ~ 95° to 100°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 95° to 100°
Far western Kentucky ~ 95° to 100°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 95° to 100°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 95° to 100°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 95° to 100°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 102° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Excessive heat. Use care. Isolated wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds near storms. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 11:33 PM
Moonset: 9:16 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of mainly evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise:
Moonset: 10:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Not as hot and not as humid.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 85° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 85° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 85° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 85° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:02 AM
Moonset: 11:40AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Hot weather. Peak heating day will be Tuesday.
2. Watching a cold front Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon. Scattered storms will accompany the front.
3. Some brief temperature relief Thursday behind the cold front. Then, hot weather returns.
4. Watching another cold front Saturday and Sunday. Another one next week. Both could bring storms back into the forecast.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

A cold front passed through the region yesterday. Rain totals ranged from 0.00″ to nearly 1.00″. Wide range.

Severe weather stayed away from our area, thankfully.

The front has dranw in lower dew points form the north and east. That means it won’t feel as muggy today. It will be somewhat nicer outside. It will still be quite warm to hot with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Winds will become southly tonight and tomorrow. That means higher moisture levels. Muggier weather.

Tuesday may end up being the hottest day of this current heat wave. Highs well into the 90s with heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees. The National Weather Service has issued heat advisories for several counties.

Either way, in or out of that advisory, tomorrow will be miserable with air you wear.

The current heat advisory. I can’t rule out additional counties being added.

It will be dry today into tonight.

We will be monitoring northern Missouri and central Illinois for the development of thunderstorms tomorrow. The storms will eventually push south and southeast. That will bring them into our region tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.

Model guidance varies on just how much activity moves into our local area. We will need to monitor for one or two thunderstorm complexes. These are called MCS’s.

MCS’s typically bring heavy downpours and gusty winds. Occasionally, they are severe.

A cold front will push into the region Wednesday. This front will bring additional thunderstorm chances. Some of the storms could be heavy with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours.

Rain totals will once again vary. Ranging from trace amounts of over an inch. If training storms occur, then some locations could exceed two inches of rain. Common for the summer months.

Feast or famine, is what I call these fronts. Either very little rain or too much rain.

Cooler and drier air will push into the region Thursday and Thursday night. It will feel nicer outside.

That won’t last long and the heat returns by Friday into the weekend.

I am watching another cold front Saturday and Sunday. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the forecast along that front. We will once again be monitoring for MCS’s. Thunderstorm complexes that could produce locally heavy rain.

Tha atmosphere will be loaded with moisture. Any storms that form could be heavy.

PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere. PWAT values above 2 inches are considered extreme.

We will have 2″ to 2.25″+ PWAT values this coming weekend into next week. This will be a concern for heavy rain.

Saturday night PWAT values.

Sunday PWAT values

PWAT values next Tuesday.

The long range EC model outlook shows plenty of 90s into week two.

And, here is our July forecast.

For week’s three and four.

July Outlook

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.