Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I will keep an eye on a cold front approaching from the north northwest late next week.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Thursday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.   Warmer.  More humid.  Some clouds far north with a slight chance of thunderstorms. after 5 pm (mainly near the I-64 corridor).
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~  10%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  10%
Southern Illinois ~  0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~  0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any at all (far north)
Timing of the precipitation: After 4 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~  90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  10 – very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17  PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Some clouds far north with a chance of a thunderstorm.  an area of storms will approach from northeast MO and central IL.  It will move south and dissipate.  It may live long enough to bring some thunderstorms into our northern counties near the I-64 corridor.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~  0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~  0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (mainly far north)
Timing of the precipitation: Before 12 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southwest 2 to 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:24 PM
Moonset: 12:54  AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

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Friday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Hot.  A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~  20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the afternoon
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~  90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  10 – very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A slight chance of evening storms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~  10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~  10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction:  Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:21 PM
Moonset: 1:15  AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Saturday Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~  0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  0%
Southern Illinois ~  0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~  0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~  90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  10 – very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~  0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~  0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction:  Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:18 PM
Moonset: 1:36  AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Sunday Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Hot. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~  20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  20%
Southern Illinois ~  20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~  20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 pm
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 94° to 98°
Southeast Missouri ~ 94° to 98°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 94° to 98°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 94° to 98°
Southern Illinois ~  94° to 98°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 94° to 98°
Far western Kentucky ~ 94° to 98°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 94° to 98°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 94° to 98°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 94° to 98°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Hot weather conditions.  Use care, as always.  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:  10 – very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A slight chance of an evening thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~  10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~  10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~  10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 12 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 75°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 75°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 75°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 75°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 75°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 75°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 75°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 75°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 75°
Winds will be from this direction:  Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:16 PM
Moonset: 1:57  AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Good day, everyone.

We have experienced some nice weather over the past few days.  Perfect spring weather.  I hope you were able to enjoy it.

We are now going to enter a period of hot and muggy weather.  Summer-like weather.

You can expect daily highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s into next week.  Our only hope of some relief would be clouds and isolated thunderstorms.  That would lower temps by a bit.

Of course, any rain would make it feel muggier.  There is also a lot of moisture in the ground that still has to evaporate from recent heavy rains.

The moisture in the ground will make it feel muggier, as well.  At the same time, that high level of moisture will help shave a few degrees off the thermometer.  If we were in drought, then we would like be forecasting upper 90s to low 100s.

As it stands, we are facing a typical summer (late spring) heat wave with widespread upper 80s and 90s.  Heat index values will mostly be in the 90s, but Sunday’s heat index values will likely jump into the 98 to 104 degree range.  Muggy.  Air you wear!

A cold front will nudge into the region tonight and tomorrow.  This weak cold front will spark an outbreak of severe thunderstorms over northern Missouri and northern and central Illinois today and tonight.

That line of storms will rapidly dive southward towards our region tonight.  With time, however, it will weaken and dissipate.  It will run out of energy to work with.

You can see that idea on these three charts.   This is tonight into tomorrow morning.  Watch how the storms dissipate and weaken with time.

5 PM this evening.

2 AM tonight

5 AM tomorrow

I do have a chance of thunderstorms over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois tonight.  The storms may linger just long enough to clip my northern counties.  But, again, the entire system will dissipate with time.

Friday will be hot and humid.  An isolated thunderstorm may redevelop along the weak dying cold front.

I have low-end thunderstorm chances Sunday through Thursday of next week, as well.  Typical summer like pop-up thunderstorms that can produce very heavy rain and gusty winds over small areas.  I do not expect widespread showers and thunderstorms during this time period.

THe peak time for thunderstorm development will be during the afternoon and early evening hours.  This is when instability will be at its highest.

Most areas will remain dry, hot, and muggy.

I am monitoring July.  We are calling for a top ten hottest Julys on record for the United States as a whole.  A bold prediction, but the forecast charts back this up.

The updated July forecast replects the potential for extreme heat over portons of the central United States.  Numerous days with 90s and 100s.  Especially in the red zone.

This heat will be because of a ridge of high pressure.  Storm chasers call this the “death ridge” because it can shut down thunderstorm chances.

Models are showing a high chance of a heat wave next week in the region.  The orange colors represent the heat ridge of high pressure.  Probabilities of this are high.

Another graphic showing the high pressure ridge over the central and eastern half of the United States.

If the ridge nudges southwest, over time, then we will return to a stormy pattern.

Thunderstorm often develop along the edge of the high pressure.  These clusters of storms can be severe and are called MCS’s.  They can produce Derecho’s, as well.  Derecho’s can produce very high wind and hail over large areas.

We call this the ring of fire.

Thunderstorms often follow the 588 line on the 500 mb charts.  That could happen late next week as the ridge moves southwest.

I will be watching for a cold front and thunderstorms around June 22nd to 24th.  This GEFS model map for the 23rd shows the 588 line over our region and the center of the ridge down in Arizona and New Mexico.  This could lead to higher chances of thunderstorms.

We will have to see if the high pressure stays parked over our region or if it nudges southeast and southwest of us.  Typically, they move around.

That will likely be the deciding factor in our summer forecast.  Where the high pressure ridge develops and parks itself.

Our summer forecast has been for a hot one.  Analogs include 1988 and 2012.

The wild card in the summer forecast will be the tropics.  Any tropical development could bring beneficial rains to our region.  Dying Gulf of Mexico tropical storms and hurricanes are no stranger to our region.

We are forecasting a hyper-active hurricane season with numerous named systems.

It will become increasinly muggy over the coming days.  This is because of dew points.

Today’s dew points

Sunday dew points (see the difference)

Air you wear!

You will hear me mention dew points frequently during the summer months and during severe weather.

What are dew points?  Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside.  They will slowly be on the rise as we move through the work-week.

A lot of people talk about humidity, but it is the dew point that makes the difference in how it feels outside.

These conditions won’t initially trigger a heat advisory or any National Weather Service products, but it is a good time to start thinking about heat safety.

Heat Safety

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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This  animation is the NAM Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the FV3 Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the HRRR Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the EC Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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